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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday -Sun early in the day giving way to increasing clouds late morning into the afternoon hours. Cooler than normal temperatures. Highs in the 60’s. North winds – northeast at times. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph with an occasional gust to 20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Some sun. Cool. Temperatures mostly in the 40’s over the area. North/northeast winds at 10 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Increasing clouds. Temperatures in the 60’s. North/northeast winds at 10 mph.
Monday night – Mostly cloudy southern counties with mostly clear sky conditions far northern counties. Cool. Small chance for some frost over our northern and northeast counties. That would be north of Carbondale to Evansville. If this appears to be a greater concern then I will update the forecast today. Lows in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s (coldest over far northern and northeast counties). North winds…light.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans.
Tuesday – Quite a few clouds southern half of the region with some sun over northern counties. North/northeast winds at 10 mph. Highs in the 60’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans.
Tuesday night – Decreasing clouds and cool. Light north/northeast winds. Lows in the 40’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans.
Wednesday – Small chance for light shower over far far southeast counties of my forecast area. Clouds over our eastern counties with some sun over far northern and western counties. Highs mostly in the 60’s. A bit cooler over eastern counties if they have clouds. Missouri Bootheel area could approach upper 60’s. East winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to change plans.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm weather this week? Appears to be the case
2. System passes to our south on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Hoping the moisture stays south, as well
3. I have been forecasting the second week of May onward for warmer and more sustained warmth. That is starting to show up in the charts. Spring may finally settle in…soon.
A rather unusual weather pattern across the United States (especially for late April). The pattern will work to our advantage. Although there will be periods of clouds that move in and out of the region, overall the pattern favors below normal precipitation this week. It will also favor below normal to well below normal temperatures. We will start to see temperatures move more towards normal readings by Wednesday or Thursday.
Check out this satellite view from Sunday. The white would be clouds. These stubborn clouds kept many of us rather cool for late April. It almost looks like snow cover that you might see during the winter months on satellite.
Let’s look at some of the departure maps for temperatures (how many degrees below normal will high temperatures be this week).
These are the Monday departures (normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees and normal lows are around 50 degrees)
Tuesday departures (high temperatures)
Wednesday departures.
By Thursday and Friday we should see temperatures near normal. By the weekend we should go above normal (maybe above normal as early as Friday).
The good news, for farmers and gardeners, is that it should be dry. I am a little concerned about light frost on Monday night. This will be highly dependent on the winds dying off and clouds moving out. The area of concern would be our far northern/northeastern counties. Monitor updates. If frost does appear possible then I will update the page early in the day (top of the page).
The soil moisture capacity map indicates we are saturated. No secret there!
A large storm system will pass to our south towards the middle of the week. At one time this system had its eyes set on our region with severe storms. But, for most of the past week it has trended more and more south. It is more like a January storm track than a late April storm track. But hey, that is just par for the course this year. Odd weather. But, odd weather has kept us from having large tornado outbreaks. We will count our blessings on that front.
Here is the 500 mb for the last 24 hours. You can see the jet stream at the 500 mb level diving way south over the southwest.
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No major changes to the ongoing forecast.
No major concerns for the coming days!
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – the wild card this week will be whether or not some light rain moves into the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday as a storm system passes to our south. I am keeping it dry for now, but one eye on the system.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Data is a little bit mixed on the Tuesday into Wednesday system. Dry or not dry? Rain or no rain?
Data wants to try and bring precipitation up into parts of our region on Tuesday evening/night and Wednesday. The GFS is the main model that is doing this. The EC is further south.
For now…let’s expect dry conditions, but keep one eye on the southern system.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Dry most of the week. Small chance for precipitation with the southern storm system
I will start watching the weekend for some light precipitation chances. Will monitor.
This is the NAM depiction of the storm passing to our south on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Hopefully it stays far enough south to leave us high and dry.
Pulling ahead to May 🙂
My forecast has been that May would bring sustained warmth starting the latter half of the first week into the middle of the month. Will that happen? Well, some of the long range graphics are starting to show that it might. Hopefully spring will finally settle into the region. It does appear wetter than normal could continue to be the rule as we move into May.
Peak tornado activity is usually May and the first part of June, for our area. Let’s stay aware as we move into the new month.
May 5th through 9th Temperature Forecast (above normal)
Month of May as a whole. Odds favor above normal temperatures. We will see if we can pull that off.
Month of May precipitation forecast – above normal across much of the country.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
