Thursday morning update
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few strong storms possible. Locally heavy downpours (esp over Missouri and Illinois).
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: South and southwest becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. A few storms could be intense.
Is severe weather expected? Perhaps isolated severe reports for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Small risk elsewhere.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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April 27, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A morning shower possible. Cooler. Less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Winds becoming south during the afternoon hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways before 10 am.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:02 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:40 p.m.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A 30% chance for thunderstorms after 1 am.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered late at night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 28, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. Warm. Severe storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: East and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Some storms could become severe with hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes. Flash flooding possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:02 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:41 p.m.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy downpours possible. Flash flooding possible. Severe storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Gusty winds. Wet roadways. Severe storms with hail, wind, and tornadoes possible. Flash flooding possible.
Is severe weather expected? Severe storms are possible. Flash flooding possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts. Some storms are possible Friday night.
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April 29, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A 50% for morning showers and thunderstorms. A 40% for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Mild. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:42 p.m.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Warm. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Gusty winds. Wet roadways. Flash flooding.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night: Some storms could be severe. Heavy rain possible. High winds and hail possible.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday night: A few storms are possible. It does not appear that severe weather is a concern, but monitor updates.
Frida and Friday night: Severe thunderstorms are possible. Heavy rain likely. Flash flooding concerns. Monitor updates. The greatest risk will likely be Friday afternoon and night.
Saturday and Saturday night: Saturday might end up mostly dry. Tough call. If storms were to form on Saturday then they could become severe. Storms are more likely Saturday night. Storms on Saturday night could produce heavy rain. I can’t rule out severe weather, but confidence is low.
Sunday and Sunday night: Storms are likely ahead of a cold front. Heavy rain possible. Some storms could be severe.
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Weather analysis for the next few days:
The main concern will be heavy rain.
Here is the NAM rainfall forecast through 7 pm on Saturday. This does not include rain that will fall on Sunday and Sunday night.
Remember, these are models. Models are for guidance and are not gospel. These totals won’t be exact.
Here is the GFS and GEM models. These maps extend through Sunday night.
This won’t be exact. Take the general idea that heavy rain is likely. The heaviest totals might end up over Missouri and Illinois.
Here is the latest NOAA rainfall forecast for the next seven days.
Click images to enlarge
MO IL view
KY TN view
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
