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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated scattered thunderstorm possible towards Poplar Bluff and then northeast towards Mt Vernon. Low chances, overall.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: Winds South at 10 mph with gusts 25
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (if any at all)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Small risk for lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. An increasing chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon. If a storm forms then it would be heavy. A few storms seem likely on Tuesday.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered showers and storms are possible on Tuesday.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind that some storms may form.
Is severe weather expected? Yes. Severe storms are possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, and even hail will be possible. Heavy downpours.
Tuesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some questions on coverage for Tuesday night storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Some question on coverage Tuesday night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium to high
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor trends
Is severe weather expected? The atmosphere will be unstable on Tuesday night. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps a few strong storms.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 50%-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 78 to 82 (cloud cover could keep temps down a bit. More sun and it will be warmer)
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Strong winds near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for backup.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could become severe.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty winds. Strong storms possible. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – Mostly Cloudy. A 60%-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms before 2 am. Then a 40% chance after 2 am.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (especially before 2 am)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Strong storms.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorm risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: South at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning. Otherwise, none.
Thursday Night – Partly Cloudy. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Winds west and southwest at 8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe patchy fog. Otherwise, none.
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: Northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Increasing clouds. A 30% chance for thunderstorms after 2 am
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Saturday – A good chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
Winds: South at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Lightning, locally heavy rain. Strong storms possible.
Saturday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Monitor updates.
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms ending. Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: West at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered and ending
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy and cooler. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy fog.
Monday – Patchy morning fog possible. Mostly sunny, otherwise.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 70s
Winds: North at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe patchy morning fog
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Main story will be unsettled weather
- Locally heavy rain over the coming six day period
- Can’t rule out some severe storms this week
- Weekend already looks stormy
Active weather ahead of us. Let’s pay a bit more attention this week to updates. The forecast you read now could change. Don’t walk away with just one take.
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Let’s break down the upcoming ten days.
Monday night: We will see some increase in clouds tonight with gusty winds. Small chance (less than 20% chance) for a shower or thunderstorm over our western counties and northern counties. Let’s say from Poplar Bluff, MO towards Perryville, MO and then towards Mt Vernon. Coverage would be isolated, at best. Winds tonight could be gusty from the south and southwest at 10-20 mph. Gusts to 24-28 mph. Severe weather is not anticipated tonight.
Tuesday: We will have a mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Temperatures will push into the 80s with an increasingly humid air-mass. The atmosphere will become very unstable. But, moisture will be limited and there will be a CAP on the atmosphere. Warm air aloft. At least for part of the day. The CAP does erode during the afternoon and evening hours.
During the afternoon some showers and thunderstorms may form. If they do form then they could be on the heavy side. See maps further down in this update.
The storms would move in from the St Louis area. They would be moving east and southeast into the area. Some question on exact placement. Monitor updates on Tuesday.
A couple of storms might pop up on Tuesday. Especially true for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky. If a storm forms on Tuesday then it would be intense with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Maybe even a report hail. A few severe storms are possible on Tuesday. Thus, a severe thunderstorm watch might need to be issued for portions of the area.
Tuesday night: A cold front will slowly push into our area from the north. At least scattered showers and heavy thunderstorms will form along this front. They will be slow to move. Heavy rain could fall across portions of our area. Especially true if training of thunderstorms occur. The best chance of this will be across northern parts of southeast Missouri, across the northern half of southern Illinois, and across northern Kentucky (northwest Kentucky). Closer to the Indiana/Kentucky state line and then a county or two southward.
Parts of the area may remain dry today through Wednesday morning. And, parts of the area could pick up 1-3″ of rain during the same time frame. Northern half has a better chance for heavy rain vs the southern half of the region.
The front will slowly push southeast on Tuesday night. As the front pushes south the thunderstorms will tap into the warm and moist air. How far south the cold front will drift is questionable. At least the northern half of our region will have to deal with a decent chance for thunderstorms. I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm on Tuesday night. Although the primary concern will be heavy rain and frequent lightning.
Just not sure how far south that line of storms will push. Northern half has a better chance than southern half. Keep that in mind. If the front is slightly further south then that puts most of our region in the thunderstorm zone. Monitor updates, of course.
Wednesday: Wednesday is the day with the most potential for volatile weather. Especially during the afternoon hours. But, there remains a number of questions about just how much severe weather we might have to deal with. Yes, I have read the media posts about a tornado outbreak on Wednesday. At this time, I am not on-board for that.
Could there be a tornado threat on Wednesday? Yes. But, perhaps the overall tornado threat is low. Meaning, numerous tornadoes are unlikely to occur. Could there be a tornado on Wednesday? Yes. Especially true along the warm front. As always, monitor updates. The forecast can and often does change.
The biggest question on Wednesday will be CAPE. CAPE is available energy for storms. If we have widespread morning precipitation and clouds then that will keep instability/CAPE to a minimum. One way that CAPE builds is sunshine. There are other ways. But, that is one of the primary ways. Widespread sunshine and heating helps build energy. This is why I always tell you that several hours of sunshine, on a day with severe weather in the forecast, is normally a bad sign. You do not want sunshine (for several hours) on a day when severe storms are forecast.
So, back to the forecast. The biggest question is how much cloud cover we will have on Wednesday morning and Wednesday night. This will be one of the deciding factors in the severe weather outlook.
A cold front will push into our region on Wednesday. And, a warm front will be draped across the northern half of the region. If a thunderstorm forms along the warm front then it could rotate. This will need to be monitored.
Showers and storms are forecast to form along the cold front. Some of these storms could produce hail, strong and gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.
A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch may have to be issued on Wednesday.
Wednesday night: Showers and thunderstorms should come to an end. Can’t rule out some remaining precipitation. But, the bulk should be over before 9 pm.
Thursday and Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Perhaps a shower on Thursday. But, it should be mostly dry. A couple of showers and thunderstorms possible. But, odds favor dry and mild. High temperatures on both day should be in the 70s. Remember, the cold front has moved east of us during this time frame. Thus, slightly cooler air mass. Drier air mass. Pleasant temperatures.
Friday night: Warm front pushes back into the area from the south. Thunderstorms MAY form north of the warm front. These storms could produce hail. Still some questions on timing of the warm front. If the warm front is slower to advance north then Friday night will remain mostly dry.
Saturday and Sunday: Monitor updates. Another round of heavy weather likely.
Another area of low pressure, cold front, and warm front will push into the region this coming weekend. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible. Some of the storms could be strong. Heavy rain is possible this weekend. This coming weekend will not be like the last.
Next week: Monday through Wednesday. At this time, it appears mostly dry. Long way off. But, believe we dry out for a bit. Cooler.
Stay tuned.
Let’s look at a few maps.
These first maps are the high resolution WRF model. You can see that it does indicate some storms popping up on Tuesday. Mainly over northern parts of southeast Missouri. Then, they would track southeast into northwest Kentucky. Assuming they form.
This is around 3 pm on Tuesday afternoon. Some storms moving in from the north. According to this data set.
This next image is for 5 pm on Tuesday evening.
This next image is for 7 pm on Tuesday evening.
We could have a few strong storms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Tuesday. Red zone could experience a few severe thunderstorms.
But, better chances for some severe weather could arrive on Wednesday. Still need to work out the details.
Wednesday severe weather outlook.
Let’s look at the WRF model for Wednesday afternoon and evening. This is around 7 pm. Scattered severe storms? Possibly.
Check out these maps.
What are the probabilities of 2″ or more of rain falling between now and May 8th? Weatherbell.com maps. Click map for a larger view.
What are the chances for 4″ or more of rain during the same time frame?
We have a lot to monitor the next couple of weeks. Stay abreast of changing forecasts.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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There will be a level three risk for severe weather on Tuesday into Wednesday evening.
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Monday Night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A less than 10% chance for a thunderstorm.
Tuesday into Tuesday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates. If thunderstorms form on Tuesday they could be intense. But, there will be a lid on the atmosphere. Coverage is questionable. But, if a storm forms it would be intense.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates. Severe weather will be possible.
Wednesday night: Thunderstorms possible. Severe weather will be possible early in the night.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated thunderstorm risk.
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Perhaps a few late night storms.
Saturday: Thunderstorms possible. Strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates
Saturday night and Sunday: Thunderstorms are possible. Strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
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Updated the forecast for Tuesday. Looks like some storms will develop in the region.
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The main concern will be thunderstorm chances over the upcoming week. And, some of the storms could be strong/severe. Monitor updates each day. There are a lot of moving parts to the forecast. That means adjustments on the timing of thunderstorms could change.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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This is the 7 day precipitation outlook. Some showers and heavy thunderstorms are possible on and off this week into next weekend. This is a broad-brushed outlook. And, totals will have wide ranges. Keep that in mind.
Thunderstorms can always produce higher totals. And, likely will.
This first map is the rainfall forecast through Friday night. This does not include the weekend storm. The second map includes from now through the weekend.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
