Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

April 24th to May 1st

Current risk: POSSIBLE.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments: At this time, I am monitoring Monday and Monday night.  Monday is the day with the greatest chance of severe weather.  I can’t rule out some tornadoes.  Monitor updates. 

Double click on the graphic to enlarge it.

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

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This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

Showers and thunderstorms today.  A low risk of a strong thunderstorm.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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The new drought maps have been posted.  Portions of our region remain in severe drought.

Double-click graphics to enlarge them.

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A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving into the region.

You can see that on the 4 am radar animations.  See the live radar links below.

This line is weakening as it advances eastward.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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A few of the thunderstorms today could produce strong wind gusts and nickel-sized hail.  The risk of organized severe weather is low, but perhaps not zero.

Here is the official Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook.  As you can see, there is a low level risk in the dark green zone.

That includes far southeast Missouri into western Tennessee.  It clips southwest Kentucky.

The light green zone is where storms are possible, but likely below severe levels.

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Again, the line on the radar is weakening as it moves eastward.

A couple of showers may linger into Saturday and Sunday.  Most of the area will remain dry after sunrise on Saturday.  A few locations could receive a brief shower.

Some of the guidance shows an area of showers moving across southern Missouri into portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee on Sunday.  For now, I kept rain chances low.

Monday’s Severe Weather Potential

A stronger system will move into the region on Monday.  Some of those thunderstorms could be severe.  The risk will be damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes.

Here are the CAPE values from the GFS model.

CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into.

You can see it peaks over our western and northwestern counties on Monday afternoon and evening.

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Here is the supercell composite.   Supercells tend to produce higher-end severe weather.   That includes tornadoes.

I am monitoring the trends in the guidance.

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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a level two and three severe weather risk. The levels range from one to five.

A lot of questions remain.

This is concerning four days out.  Monitor updates over the coming days.

I will send out some app notifications, as well.

This severe weather outlook will likely continue to shift around a bit.  This won’t be the final forecast.  We have several days to go.

Here is the latest Monday severe weather outlook.  The yellow is a level 2 out of 5 risk zone.  The orange is a level 3 out of 5 risk zone.

This is mainly for Monday afternoon and Monday night.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
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🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

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