Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

April 23rd to April 30th

Current risk: POSSIBLE.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments: At this time, I am monitoring Monday.  Monday is the day with the greatest chance of severe weather.  I can’t rule out some tornadoes.  Monitor updates. 

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

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This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

No significant weather concerns today.  Showers and thunderstorms will increase late tonight and on Friday.

It will be breezy at times today.  Avoid burning brush and fields today.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Another great spring day ahead of us.  Warm and breezy.

Our next weather concern will arrive late tonight and tomorrow.

A frontal system will approach the region from the west.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front late tonight.

Peak chances will be on Friday and Friday night.

A few of the thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts and nickel-sized hail.  The risk of organized severe weather is low, but perhaps not zero.

I can’t rule out a few stronger thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening.

A couple of showers may linger into Saturday and Sunday.  Most of the area will remain dry after sunrise on Saturday.  A few locations could receive a brief shower.

Some of the guidance shows an area of showers moving across southern Missouri into portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee on Sunday.  For now, I kept rain chances low.

A stronger system will move into the region on Monday.  Some of those thunderstorms could be severe.  The risk will be damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a level two and three severe weather risk. The levels range from one to five.

This is concerning five days out.  Monitor updates over the coming days.

I will send out some app notifications, as well.

This shift zone will likely continue to shift around a bit.  This won’t be the final forecast.  We have several days to go.

Here is the current Monday severe weather outlook.  The yellow is a level 2 out of 5 risk zone.  The orange is a level 3 out of 5 risk zone.

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The models have been slowly increasing the risk on Monday.

I like to monitor trends.  This is the EPS model.  It is showing the area of higher CAPE values (energy) and wind shear.

This indicates that severe storms may develop on Monday.

Notice the shift north-northwest.

The blue and purple zones are where the risk is higher.

Monitor updates.

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Monitor updates over the coming days.  I will send out app alerts.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

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