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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool for campers.
Temperatures: Lows from 46 to 52 degrees
Winds: North and Northwest at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Some morning clouds. Giving way to sunshine. Nice. Pleasant. Spring.
Temperatures: High temperatures middle 70s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Nice. Pleasant for campers.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Nice. Warm. Spring weather. Great day.
Temperatures: High temperatures upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: Southwest winds at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Increasing clouds late.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Windy. Warmer. A slight chance for a thunderstorm at your location (less than 20% chance)
Temperatures: High temperatures upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated. Perhaps slightly better chance over northern parts of southeast Missouri.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Lightning possible.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20% for a shower or thunderstorm at your location.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-62 degree range
Winds: Winds South at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated. A few storms may show up on radar.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A 30% for a shower or thunderstorm. A few showers and thunderstorms could develop in the area.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 80s
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (subject to adjustments as we move forward)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered showers and storms are possible on Tuesday. The odds favor your location remaining dry. But, there should be some precipitaton on radar during the afternoon hours. There is a CAP on the atmosphere. And, that might help keep storm chances down.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor trends
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates. Some storms could be intense (if they develop).
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, and even small hail will be possible. Heavy downpours.
Tuesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Expect a few storms on radar.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor trends
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates. The atmosphere will be unstable on Tuesday.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps a few strong storms.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures lower to middle 80s (if clouds are thicker then temperatures will remain in the 70s)
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Storms are possible
Is severe weather expected? Possibly
What impact is expected? Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty winds. Strong storms. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – Partly Cloudy. A 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Possibly. The atmosphere will be unstable.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Strong storms.
Thursday – Partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s
Winds: South at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous. This depends on the speed of the system. It could clear our area by Thursday.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
Thursday Night – Partly Cloudy. A 30% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
Friday – Partly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s
Winds: South at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Friday Night – Partly Cloudy. A 30% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
Saturday – Partly sunny. Warm. Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
Winds: South at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
This upcoming weekend already looks nice.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Beautiful weekend in store for the region! Enjoy it.
- Unsettled next week. Stormy? Warm/humid.
I am upgrading my computer today. Short update.
Beautiful weekend on tap for the region! Lot of sun. Lot of warm temperatures. Please enjoy.
On and off thunderstorm chances next week. Some debate on the start time. The guidance has been shifting around between Monday and Tuesday. I did include small thunderstorm chances early in the period. But, I believe the days to monitor will be Wednesday, Thursday, and perhaps Saturday.
EC guidance brings a strong system into the region on Saturday. GFS holds it off until Sunday night/Monday. Either way, lot of time to monitor next weekends forecast.
For now, enjoy the upcoming weekend.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Widespread severe weather is not anticipated through this week.
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Friday night – Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday – Some thunderstorms are possible.
Tuesday – Friday of next week you should monitor updates. Some stronger storms possible. Heavy rain possible.
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No major changes in this forecast package.
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No major concerns through Sunday. Perhaps some gusty winds Sunday.
I am closely monitoring next weeks weather. We may have several periods of showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be more unstable next week. Thus, some strong storms can’t be ruled out from time to time. Let’s keep an eye on it.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms early next week. This may last most of next week. On and off storm chances. Locally heavy rain possible.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
