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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Wednesday – Any morning precipitation will be coming to an end. It will be cooler than normal with highs in the upper 50’s to 60’s. Northwest winds of 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Any morning precipitation will be coming to an end. Cool. Morning temperatures in the lower 50’s. Upper 40’s possible over northern counties.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny and cooler than normal. Upper 50’s to lower 60’s for temperatures.
Wednesday night – Patchy frost possible over parts of southern Illinois. A few clouds and then becoming mostly clear and cool. Lows in the middle/upper 30’s to lower 40’s. North winds at 5-10 mph. Coldest from Marion, IL northward
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday – Just a few clouds, otherwise sunshine. Highs in the 60’s. North to northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday night – Clear and cool. Lows in the 40’s. Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday – Expect increasing clouds through the day as a storm system approached from the southwest. Perhaps a shower or thunderstorm towards the afternoon. More likely Friday night into Saturday, but monitor updates on the timing. Highs will be in the 60’s. East winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates, morning and most of the afternoon might be okay.
Monitoring Saturday for the potential of storms near our region. Track of the area of low pressure will determine any severe threat.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Transamerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cooler than normal weather to continue
2. A couple of weak systems near our region over coming days
3. Larger system Friday and Saturday. But where will the low track? Severe concerns south of warm front.
4. Warmer towards last half of the first week of May?
Some hailers moved through the area on Tuesday afternoon and evening. This was because of the cold air aloft and low freezing level.
The coming days will bring below normal temperatures. Some spots could even dip to upper 30’s (northern counties).
Wednesday morning lows
Wednesday high temperature
Thursday morning lows
Thursday high temperatures
Our next storm system arrives on Friday and Saturday. Right now it appears the storm is going to track further north. That could put us in the warm sector. We don’t want to be in the warm sector. The warm sector is where heavier rain and storms would occur.
See the extended forecast discussion for details.
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No major changes. Adjusted temperatures slightly, but nothing major. Wind, as well.
No major concerns through Friday morning. Good news.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
No action required through Friday morning.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – how cold will the nights be over the coming days. I suspect some places will experience upper 30’s. Pretty cold for this time of the year. Mt Vernon, IL has upper 30’s on Tuesday morning.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO. No storms anticipated.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates as a low passes near our region.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates – severe possible near the warm front (uncertainties surround placement)
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain chances will increase on Friday and Saturday. Could be some heavy downpours…especially if we end up on the warm side of this system.
Rainfall totals could exceed 1/2″. Again, if we end up with thunderstorms then some places would pick up more than 1″ of rain.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
All eyes now turn to the Friday and Saturday system. The track of the area of low pressure has been in question over the past few days. If the low tracks to our south then it would be more like a winter storm track. That keeps us on the cool side with rain. If it were January then it would be a decent track for snow. Of course it isn’t January.
My concern is the warm front and track of the low. If the warm front moves through our region then our instability will rise and severe storms will certainly be possible. The track of the low remains uncertain.
NWS offices are all over the place on the track of the low. This does not add confidence to the ongoing forecast.
Bottom line – precipitation is likely on Friday into Saturday.
Remain updated on this system.
Here are the CAPE values on the new GFS. This concerns me. These are high numbers. The new GFS brings the warm front into our region on Saturday. Stay tuned
Remember, CAPE is energy (laymen terms)
This means we are going to have to monitor the Friday and Saturday system.
Either way, rain appears likely as we push further into Friday and Saturday.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
