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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today. I will monitor next Sunday into Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. Severe thunderstorms are possible today. I will monitor next Tuesday.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? LOW RISKE. Gusty winds are possible into Wednesday. For now, I kept them below 40 mph.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Tuesday through Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A strong cold front moves through today, with storms continuing from the overnight through the afternoon. Winds become gusty today and Wednesday as colder and drier air moves in for Thursday and Friday. Winds are expected to shift around to the west-northwest behind the cold front.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds ahead of a strong cold front. Gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of the front. Some of the storms ahead of the front could be severe with hail, damaging wind, and even tornadoes. Stay weather aware if you are in a tornado watch today or in a warning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered west but more numerous eastern counties.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 75°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west 10 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Monitor any watches and warnings that are issued.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 2:56 AM
Moonset: 12:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Small hail possible. Colder. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Small hail
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars. Some showers are likely.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder. Scattered showers. A snow shower possible over northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 1 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early in the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 3:44 AM
Moonset: 1:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Additional thunderstorm chances today. Some could be severe.
- Colder air filters into the region tonight into Friday night.
- Additional showers and thundershowers likely Wednesday. Some could produce small hail.
- Monitoring frost chances.
- Watching a system next Sunday/Monday and Tuesday.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Additional thunderstorms are likely today. I am watching the Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. There are questions about southern Illinois.
Let’s all stay weather aware until the cold front exits.
Future-cast radar
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the FVS Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the FVS3 Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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