April 2, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

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Warmer today into the weekend.
Rain chances increase by Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Watching another system that will bring rain by Saturday night and Sunday.

Today: No.
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Tomorrow: No.

Confidence rating explained.

High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

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Today through Thursday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Monitoring late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon for lightning.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Friday through Monday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday night and more likely on Sunday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Some strong storms are possible either Saturday night or Sunday (most likely Sunday). For now, the severe weather risk appears fairly low. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 2, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Morning frost. Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Milder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with afternoon gusts between 10 and 15.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Not as cold as recent nights.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:18 PM
Moonrise: 5:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:54 PM

April 3, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny AM. Some increase in clouds during the afternoon. Warm. Nice day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 during the afternoon. Slightly higher gusts over southeast Missouri will be possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of mainly late night scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. The greatest coverage will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Lesser chances as you continue to move east.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 50° South IL 46° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. The greatest coverage will likely be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Moving west to east overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunset: 7:19 PM
Moonrise: 6:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:51 PM

April 4, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 63° to 64° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Activity will diminish as we move later into Thursday night. Ending west to east.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 48° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Precipitation will taper west to east as we move through the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the evening. Rain will end west to east overnight.
Sunset: 7:20 PM
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 6:48 PM

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Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Warmer. Highs in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees. Lows in the lower to middle 50’s. Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds during the day. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. Mild. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm late Saturday night. Monitor updates as some of the guidance bring the rain into the region earlier. Highs in the lower 70’s. Lows in the middle to upper 50’s. South and southeast wind at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mild. Cloudy with showers and some thunderstorms likely (60% chance). Precipitation should taper late Sunday or Sunday night. Highs in the lower 70’s. Lows in the middle 50’s. South and southeast at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

My hand-typed forecast may differ from the graphics below. During active weather check my written forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: No severe weather.

Thursday through Sunday: A few storms are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Lightning is the current concern. Thunderstorms are again possible late Saturday night and Sunday. For now, the severe weather risk appears low. Monitor updates, as always.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Warmer weather into the weekend!
Rain chances ramp up again by Wednesday night/Thursday.
Monitoring another chance of rain and storms by late in the weekend.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I increased high temperatures Friday into Sunday.

The spring and summer outlooks have been updated. Scroll towards the bottom of the page to see those.

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

No.

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Forecast discussion.

A chilly start to the morning. Many areas experienced frost last night. Thankfully, it was not as cold as Sunday night.

The good news is that today into the weekend will be warmers. Temperatures today will warm into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Many areas may approach 70 on Wednesday afternoon. That, combined with some early April sun, will make it feel quite a bit nicer than recent days.

Today into most of Wednesday afternoon will remain dry.

Rain chances ramp up as we move deeper into Wednesday night lasting into Thursday afternoon. A widespread 0.30″ to 0.60″ rainfall is anticipated.

The rain will first develop over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. This would most likely occur Wednesday night. Most of the rain will hold off until late at night.

Activity then overspreads the region on Thursday.

I am not anticipating severe weather in our local area. There could be some intense storms just a tad to our south. As always, I will keep an eye on it.

A cold front will pass through the area Thursday afternoon and night. This front won’t be as strong as the last one. Temperatures on Friday will remain in the upper 60’s.

Even warmer temperatures are possible on Saturday and Sunday with widespread upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Some of the guidance even indicates the middle 70’s. I will hold off on going that warm. It is certainly a possibility ahead of our next cold front as southerly winds increase.

Another storm system will push into the region by Saturday night into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to redevelop. There may be enough instability for some strong thunderstorms. I will need to monitor trends on the weekend storm system. For now, widespread severe weather appears unlikely.

If you have weekend plans, then plan on rain by late Saturday night into Sunday. Monitor updates on the exact timing.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Our next rain maker is already showing up in the short-range guidance.

You can expect rain showers to increase by Wednesday night and linger into at least Thursday afternoon. Some showers will likely linger into Thursday night. Ending west to east.

A few thunderstorms are possible with this system, as well. Not anticipating severe weather locally.

Here is the NAM model.

Here is the GFS future-cast radar. Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge.

The GFS is lower resolution than the NAM model. The GFS usually will show a broader coverage

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.