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Today: No
.
Tomorrow: No

Rain likely again today. Strong and gusty winds will linger into next week.
Scattered rain and storms possible Monday. I will be monitoring higher chances Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Peak rain chances may not arrive until Tuesday night/Wednesday.

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Today through Sunday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Unlikely.
Is lightning in the forecast? Small risk. A small risk of lightning.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Monday through Thursday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Monday through Thursday. The timing of the better chances will need to be monitored. An active flow pattern will be underway with several chances of thunderstorms.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely, but monitor updates.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 19, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Chilly. Windy. Rain redeveloping. Rain likely. The chances of rain are greater during the late morning hours into the afternoon hours. Parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois may not receive much rainfall. The greatest coverage will be east of the Mississippi River.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 48° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind at 12 to 24 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% to 60% Southeast MO 40% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Greatest chance after 10 AM over most of the area. Earlier over the Bootheel and western Tennessee.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Some clouds. Chilly. A shower is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Decreasing coverage west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:34 PM
Moonrise: 8:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Full
Moonset: 6:42 AM

April 20, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: ** Rain may linger longer over southeast IL into parts of western KY (mainly Evansville south to LBL and then eastward) ** A mix of sun and clouds. Clearing west to east. Some morning showers possible over southeast Illinois and parts of western Kentucky. Mainly from LBL to Owensboro and then east of that line. A slight chance of sleet.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 66° to 68° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 40% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely rain will have ended over most of the area. I will be closely monitoring southeast Illinois into parts of western Kentucky. Mainly from LBL north to Owensboro and then eastward. I can’t rule out some showers early in the day. Cooler temperatures if that happens, as well (in those areas)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways over southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. This would be during the morning hours. Hopefully, the system will push out of the region early in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars early in the day over our eastern counties.
UV Index: 6 Moderate to high if we have sunshine.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None. Monitor for patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:35 PM
Moonrise: 9:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:17 AM

April 21, 2019
The pick day of the week
Sunday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. Beautiful day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 Very High
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. A few clouds late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60 NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:35 PM
Moonrise: 10:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:55 AM

Monday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds. A 30% chance of a shower. High temperatures in the middle to upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the middle to upper 50’s. South winds at 10 to 20 mph.

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Tuesday: Medium confidence. Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the middle to upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s. South winds at 7 to 14 mph

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Wednesday: Medium confidence. Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the lower to middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the middle 50’s. South southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

Click to enlarge

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: No severe thunderstorms.

Sunday through next Friday: There will be a chance of thunderstorms Monday through at least Wednesday evening. For now, the threat of severe weather appears low.

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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Showers likely today. Chilly. Windy. Parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois may not receive much rainfall. The greatest coverage will be east of the Mississippi River.
A few showers may remain Saturday morning.
Warm and nice on Sunday.
Spotty rain chances Monday into Wednesday night.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

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Does the forecast require action today or tonight?
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No

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Forecast discussion.

** There remain questions about how fast the rain exits on Saturday morning over southeast Illinois and parts of western Kentucky **

We will have yet another system push through the region today and this evening.

This is what we call an upper level low. This is what it looks like on the weather map.

See the red colors? See the spin? That is the upper-level low. That is the lift that helps to generate the rain.

This system will bring another round of rain today. Not only that, it will be chilly. It will be windy, as well.

Highs today will range from the upper 40’s to middle 50’s. Winds will gust above 25 mph. It will feel like fall.

Here are today’s wind chill values. Yes, wind chill.
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Parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois may not receive much rainfall. The greatest coverage will be east of the Mississippi River.

The rain will slowly exit off to the east Friday night and early Saturday morning.

My main concern for Saturday is that a few showers remain over southeast Illinois and portions of western Kentucky. The further east you travel the more likely you will run into some rain showers.

The rain and clouds will exit through the day.

Saturday will be warmer and Sunday will be even warmer.

The pick day of the weekend is Sunday!

Highs in the 60’s on Saturday and 70’s on Sunday. Happy Easter weekend.

The warm temperatures will be with us Monday into Wednesday, as well.

Long Range

We will have spotty shower and thunderstorm chances Monday into Wednesday night.

I have been wrestling to pin down the timing of the rain chances.

For now, I am forecasting the greatest rain chances to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Perhaps focused on Wednesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be lower on Monday and Tuesday. Many areas may remain dry on Monday and perhaps even Tuesday. Rain chances will be 30% or less.

Monitor updates concerning the timing of showers and thunderstorms next week. I will be fine-tuning them.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Friday’s rain shower activity will increase from north to south during the day.

NAM 3K model. Notice the rain redevelops as the day wears on. Parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois may not receive much rainfall.

GFS future-cast radar

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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*****

VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

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They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

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The Ohio Valley video

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Long Range video

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 691

Tonight’s WeatherBrain has been a broadcast meteorologist for 35 years, with the past 25 years in Top 10 markets including Houston and Dallas Texas. In January 2019, he retired from television, but started his own business titled “Heller Weather LLC”. This business helps local TV stations maximize their weather resources and build stronger brands. Tim Heller, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: