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Today: Yes. Some storms are possible today. Monitor updates in case a few storms produce high winds. Lightning is likely today. Locally heavy rain is likely today. Avoid flooded roadways.
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Tomorrow: No. Rain is possible but no severe storms.

Widespread moderate to heavy rain today into tonight. Rain lingers into Friday.
A widespread one to two inches of rain is likely today/tonight/Friday. Pockets of two to three+ inches are possible.
Gusty winds today into Monday.
Rain returns to the forecast Monday into Thursday. On/off chances. Not the best forecast.

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Today through Saturday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Unlikely.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today and tonight.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce damaging winds today. Low-end risk, overall.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Some flooding is possible over the next 24 to 36 hours. Avoid flooded roadways.

Sunday through Wednesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Monday into Thursday. The daily details will need to be ironed out.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor updates. Additional rain chances are likely. We will need to monitor the threat of heavy rain. We do not need more rain.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 18, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Mild. Windy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms developing. Locally heavy rain is likely. A widespread one to two-inch rain event. Some areas could pick up two to three inches. A few storms could produce gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 80% Southeast MO 80% IL 80% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous to widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts. Monitor updates. Low-end severe weather risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mild. Windy. Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible before 10 PM. Rain ending west to east through the night. Total rainfall totals of one to two inches. Pockets of two to three inches possible across southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Diminishing through the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:33 PM
Moonrise: 6:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 6:07 AM

April 19, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Chilly. Windy. Rain redeveloping. Rain likely. The chances of rain are greater during the late morning hours into the afternoon hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 48° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind at 12 to 24 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% to 60% Southeast MO 40% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Greatest chance after 10 AM over most of the area. Earlier over the Bootheel and western Tennessee.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Some clouds. Chilly. A shower is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Decreasing coverage west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:34 PM
Moonrise: 8:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Full
Moonset: 6:42 AM

April 20, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Clearing west to east. Some morning showers possible over southeast Illinois and parts of western Kentucky. Mainly from LBL to Owensboro and then east of that line.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 66° to 68° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely rain will have ended over most of the area. I will be closely monitoring southeast Illinois into parts of western Kentucky. Mainly from LBL north to Owensboro and then eastward. I can’t rule out some showers early in the day. Cooler temperatures if that happens, as well (in those areas)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways over southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. This would be during the morning hours. Hopefully, the system will push out of the region early in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars early in the day over our eastern counties.
UV Index: 6 Moderate to high if we have sunshine.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None. Monitor for patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:35 PM
Moonrise: 9:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:17 AM

Sunday: Pick day of the weekend. Medium confidence. Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and breezy. Increasing clouds Sunday night. Highs in the middle to upper 70’s. Lows in the middle to upper 50’s. West and southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.

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Monday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures in the upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the middle tp upper 50’s. South winds at 10 to 20 mph.

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Tuesday: Medium confidence. Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the middle 50’s. South winds at 7 to 14 mph

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

Click to enlarge

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: A few storms could be intense today. There is a low-end risk of severe weather. The main concern would be damaging wind gusts. Lightning today, as well.

Saturday through next Thursday: For now, the severe weather risk appears low. Monitor updates. Next week does look active with several chances of showers and perhaps thunderstorms.

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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Rain and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is likely today.
Rain lingers into Friday. It will also be chilly and windy.
Some showers could linger into Saturday.
Easter Sunday is the pick day of the weekend! Highs in the 70’s.
More rain next week.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

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Does the forecast require action today or tonight?
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Yes. Monitor updates. Some storms could be strong today. There is a low-end severe weather risk. Damaging wind is the main concern. Lightning of course. Locally heavy rain could flood some roadways. Avoid flooded roadways.

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Forecast discussion.

Today into Thursday night.

Rain, rain, and more rain.

I am afraid a wet pattern is underway and will continue into much of next week.

I am concerned about heavy rain today. Avoid flooded roadways.

There is a low-end severe weather risk. The main concern would be damaging wind gusts. Lightning, of course.

There is not a lot of instability/CAPE to work with today. If there was more CAPE then severe weather would likely occur. As it stands, it appears the best chance of some CAPE/energy to develop would be across western Kentucky and western Tennessee.

There are questions even in those areas. The limiting factor for CAPE is clouds and ongoing precipitation. This tends to keep CAPE values down.

Monitor updates today.

NOAA has placed our region in a risk of excessive rainfall. Bottom line, that means some areas could receive enough rain to cause issues in common flood problem areas. Ditches that flood easily, roads that flood easily, and so on. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.

Rain totals of one to two inches are likely across our region. I can’t rule out pockets of two to three inches. The highest totals will be across southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Monitor the Bootheel of Missouri, as well.

Here is their outlook

The green is a marginal risk (lowest). Slight is in yellow. Moderate is red.

Some of the models are showing large rain totals.

Here are the three main model runs. GFS, NAM, and NAM3K

Let’s hope these numbers are overdone. I do expect many areas will end up with one to two inches of rain. I have mentioned pockets of three inches possible.

We have received quite a bit of rain lately.

Unsettled weather will linger into Friday. See discussion below.

Rain totals between Wednesday night and Thursday will likely range from 1.00″to 2.00″.

Weekend

Showers will likely continue into Friday. Damp, cool, and windy conditions. It will feel like fall outside. Highs on Friday will likely remain in the lower to middle 50’s. Gusty winds will make it feel cooler.

Rain totals on Friday will likely range from 0.15″ to 0.30″. There could be higher totals if the rain bands set up as the NAM guidance suggests. This upper level low will be slow to move. The rain will rotate around it and could train over the same areas. If that does happen then some places may tack on another 0.30″ to 0.50″.

It appears that there will not be enough CAPE for hail on Friday. If the sun does come out and heats the ground/surface then hail would be more likely. For now, that seems unlikely.

The system will slowly move east Friday night and early Saturday morning.

I am hoping the rain does not linger into Saturday over southeast Illinois and parts of western Kentucky (eastern counties). This will need to be closely monitored. Some guidance packages do show the rain linger (see future-cast radars).

Again, it is a slow mover. I will mention a few remaining showers early in the day over parts of the area. Mainly southeast Illinois and areas along and east of a line from LBL to Owensboro.

Saturday, if we can move that low east, will be a mix of sun and clouds. Cool, but not as chilly as Friday. Highs mostly in the 60’s.

Easter Sunday is the pick day of the week. Sunshine with highs in the 70’s! Should be nice.

Long Range

Our active weather pattern will continue into next week. See the future-cast radars below.

A series of storm systems will push through the region. Each will bring showers and some thunderstorms. Damp weather next week.

It won’t rain all the time, of course. There will be intervals of showers and thunderstorms.

The exact timing of each wave of low pressure will need to be monitored. I did include rain chances Monday into Thursday. I will fine-tune the forecast as we move forward.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Plenty of showers and thunderstorms to track on the future-cast radar.

Timestamp upper left.

GFS model

The GFS shows locally heavy rain today. Avoid flooded roadways (if that becomes an issue). We don’t need this rain.

A few storms could be strong this afternoon over western Kentucky and Tennessee.

Click to enlarge.

Some locally heavy rain on this model.

This is the NAM high-resolution model guidance.

Notice the snow on Saturday across parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

That is a bit of a stretch.

The main concern is locally heavy rain. The system will slowly exit Friday night. The forecast is for it to be out of the area by Saturday.

The NAM lingers rain over our far eastern counties. I am going to closely monitor trends in the guidance.

Our next round of rain arrives next week.

Some spotty showers and storms will be possible from Monday into Thursday. The peak may end up being Tuesday night/Wednesday. Monitor updates.

Locally heavy rain can’t be ruled out. Too early to know about severe storms.

This is what the GFS model future-cast radar shows. A messy pattern with frequent rain chances. Not the best weather for farmers.

The specifics of the Monday through Thursday time-frame will likely need to be worked out. I don’t fully trust the model guidance to handle this fast flow pattern.

Time-stamp upper left

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 691

Tonight’s WeatherBrain has been a broadcast meteorologist for 35 years, with the past 25 years in Top 10 markets including Houston and Dallas Texas. In January 2019, he retired from television, but started his own business titled “Heller Weather LLC”. This business helps local TV stations maximize their weather resources and build stronger brands. Tim Heller, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: