We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. We have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at our Park Avenue location and 20 years at our Southside location. We have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows us to provide our customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with our carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A few showers possible over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roads possible
Tuesday – Partly to mostly cloudy. More clouds west vs east. Warm. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-76 degrees. Pockets of 78-82 over western Kentucky and southeast Illinois.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% I do expect some showers on radar. But, scattered.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Especially as the day wears on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a few widely scattered showers. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild. A shower possible. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures 70-75 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radar. Some showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
Wednesday Night – A good chance for showers. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Thursday – Cloudy. Warm. A good chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-74 degrees.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
Thursday Night – Cloudy. Showers coming to an end.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% before midnight. 20% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. Believe most of the rain will be over by Friday morning.
Temperatures: High temperatures 70-75 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool for campers.
Temperatures: Lows from 46 to 52 degrees
Winds: North and Northwest at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Nice. Pleasant. Spring.
Temperatures: High temperatures middle 70s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Nice. Pleasant for campers.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Nice. Warm. Spring weather. Great day.
Temperatures: High temperatures upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Heavy storms are possible next week. Monitor updates.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Nice temperatures will continue into the weekend. Perhaps not as warm as recent days
- Rain chances arrive late Monday night and Tuesday
- Best rain chances will arrive on Wednesday/Thursday. Centered on Wednesday and Thursday.
- Severe weather is not anticipated
- Nice weekend ahead of us
- Unsettled next week
- Drought forecast map
Well, it was another AMAZING day across the region. Plenty of sun. Plenty of warm temperatures.
A large area of very heavy rain extends from Texas into Nebraska. You might have viewed some of the Houston flooding images on your local news. Over 14″ of rain fell in Houston. Sadly, this produced severe flooding. Some loss of life. Millions in damage.
Thankfully we do not have to deal with heavy rain.
The system is moving our way. But, it will be weakening and moving. The problem in Texas is that the system stalled.
Our rain chances will begin on Monday night over our western counties of southeast Missouri. And, some of those showers could spread eastward on Tuesday.
Rain chances ramp up on Wednesday into Thursday night. The highest probability for widespread rain will be Wednesday into Thursday. Rain should end by Thursday night and Friday morning.
Rainfall totals should average 0.40″-0.80″. And, totals over 1″ will also be possible. Thunderstorms can always produce higher totals. I am hoping everyone picks up the 0.40″ to 0.80″. That would be a nice rain for gardens and fields.
Friday into Sunday should be dry. Beautiful weather is anticipated. It should be a nice weekend for camping.
Let’s look at a few images from the model guidance
This first image is for Tuesday afternoon. The NAM does push showers into our region.
There is quite a bit of debate as to whether the rain will be this far east. Other guidance keeps it further west. Keep that in mind.
This next image is for Wednesday morning at 7 am. Green represents rain.
This next image is for Wednesday evening.
This next image is for Thursday morning.
Some of the analog years suggest drought in these areas. Orange areas. Perhaps this is where the highest probability of drought will occur over the coming months. So far out region has done quite well on rainfall totals. We just need the pattern to continue. If the analog years are correct then that leaves us in the middle. We will see how it goes. Long range forecasting is always low confidence forecasting.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated through this week.
.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday night: Maybe a thunderstorm over mainly southeast Missouri. Small chances elsewhere
Wednesday: Showers are possible. I can’t rule out lightning. No severe weather.
Wednesday night: Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the only real concern.
Friday – Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I am watching next week for more thunderstorm development. Perhaps a bit more active during that time frame.
.
.
.
Updated rainfall probabilities. No major changes in this forecast.
.
.
The good news is that I don’t have any major concerns. Lightning will be possible Tuesday into Thursday night. Perhaps best chances for lightning would be Wednesday and Thursday. Severe weather is not anticipated. Our good luck in that department keeps rolling along.
.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
.
Light rainfall totals possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain chances ramp up on Wednesday into Thursday night. The heaviest rain will likely be on Wednesday night and Thursday. Expect widespread 0.40″-0.80″. And, thunderstorms can produce heavier totals. I do expect some areas to top 1″ of rain.
Here are some graphics.
The first graphic represents rainfall totals through Wednesday morning. The second graphic is through Thursday morning. The last map is through Friday morning. These are TOTAL totals. You don’t add these together.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
.
.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
