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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 18th through April 24th
Current risk: POSSIBLE.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comment: I will be monitoring tonight through Sunday night.
At this time, the tornado risk appears minimal from tonight into Sunday morning.
Peak severe weather chances will likely arrive on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
There remain questions about the Sunday threat level. Currently, the threat appears higher over southeast Missouri and lower elsewhere in the region.
The Sunday risk is highly dependent on the placement of the area of low pressure and where it tracks.
If you have outdoor plans this weekend, then monitor updated forecasts. Have a plan B, just in case storms threaten.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible tonight into Sunday night. The chance of lightning tonight through Sunday morning will be higher across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. It will be lower as you travel farther southeast into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Chances increase across the area on Sunday afternoon and night.
Another chance of lightning next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Monitor updates.
A low-end risk may develop from tonight to Saturday night, mainly over MO and IL. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail the size of quarters. Overall, the risk of severe weather is low.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for tonight.
The yellow zone is a slight risk (level 2). The dark green is a marginal risk (level 1). The light green is where sub-severe storms are possible. Overall, the risk is low.
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Here is the severe weather outlook for Saturday and Saturday night. Overall, the risk is low.
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The risk of severe weather may be slightly higher on Sunday and Sunday night.
There remain questions about Sunday’s setup. The speed of the cold front and the placement of the area of low pressure will influence the severe weather risk level.
Monitor updates and radars if you have outdoor plans from Friday night into Sunday night.
I wouldn’t cancel any plans, but have a plan B ready. Remember, rain coverage from Friday night into Saturday night will be higher across Missouri and Illinois. See the seven-day video and graphics below.
Here is the Sunday severe weather outlook. Adjustments in the placement are certainly possible.
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3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. A flood watch has been issued for Ste. Genevieve and Randolph Counties. My two farthest northwest counties.
Locally heavy rain is possible this weekend over mainly southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. If heavy rain develops, then some flash flooding could occur. Ongoing river and overland flooding will continue.
The heaviest rain will likely fall to our west and northwest. See rainfall graphics below.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? LOW RISK. Gusty winds are likely today. A few gusts above 40 mph will be possible, especially over the Missouri Bootheel and far southeast Missouri.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- Mild today into Sunday.
- Gusty winds today.
- Don’t cancel any weekend plans. Monitor updates and radars. Have a plan B, and then go about your activities.
- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances tonight into Sunday night. A wide range of rain probabilities over the coming days. See the rain probability graphics below.
- A few storms could be intense this weekend. Locally heavy downpours.
- Peak severe weather chances will likely arrive on Sunday afternoon and night. Monitor updates.
- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms towards the middle of next week.
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Major flooding continues in some counties.
Avoid flooded roadways. Water continues to recede in many areas. Larger rivers, however, continue to rise.
River and lake stages. Forecasts. Click here.
We are waking up to mild conditions. Here were the 6 am temperatures.
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Today will be warm and windy. Blowing dust is once again possible across the Missouri Bootheel and far southeast Missouri.
Many locations will hit the 80-degree mark today! Southerly winds will range from 15 to 30 mph. Occasionally, there will be higher gusts.
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There will be a few clouds today. A sprinkle is possible, but nothing significant through this afternoon.
There will be a WIDE range of rain probabilities tonight into Sunday night.
Many areas may not see much rain until Sunday afternoon and night.
Missouri and Illinois are expected to have the highest precipitation coverage tonight into Saturday night. Then, chances increase area-wide as we move into Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Let me show you that in graphical form.
These graphics show you the rain probability numbers from tonight into Sunday night. In other words, what is the % chance of rain?
If you have outdoor plans, check for updates and check the radars. Have a plan B. Then, you will be prepared.
As you can see, the Friday night rain probabilities are higher north-northwest vs south-southeast.
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Saturday’s rain probabilities. Again, higher over Missouri and Illinois.
A sharp gradient from northwest to southeast.
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Saturday night’s rain probabilities.
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Sunday’s rain probabilities. Some of the storms on Sunday afternoon and night could be severe. Monitor alerts.
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Sunday night’s rain probabilities. This is when the cold front passes through the region.
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Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM model. What radar might look like from tonight into Sunday morning.
Notice the bulk of the rain falls across Missouri and Illinois.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Severe Weather Outlook
I’m not overly concerned about the risk from tonight into Saturday night. I will keep an eye on it. Perhaps a few storms could produce nickel-size hail and 50+ mph wind gusts. Overall, the severe weather risk is low.
See the graphics at the top of the page.
The risk of severe weather is a bit higher on Sunday afternoon and night. This is when I am more concerned about all modes of severe weather. That includes large hail and damaging wind gusts. Perhaps even a tornado risk. Monitor app alerts.
I kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, but the system should be winding down by then. Perhaps a few remaining showers and storms.
As far as rainfall totals go.
Here is the seven-day rainfall outlook. The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Lower totals over Kentucky and Tennessee.
These totals should not impact the river crest levels. This could mean that rivers will remain flooded for a longer period of time.
Overall, these numbers have decreased. The system continues to trend farther northwest. That is good news for those dealing with flooding.
Double-click these images to enlarge them.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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