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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds east/southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Mostly sunny. Very warm. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: High temperatures 76-84 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A slight 10% chance for a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% over southeast Missouri
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roads and lightning possible over southeast Missouri.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. A 20%-30% chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mainly over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-76 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% for southeast Missouri
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Maybe some lightning. Low confidence.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures 74-78 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% (I may need to raise this to 60% in future updates)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? Mostly likely no. But, monitor future updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Thursday – Cloudy. Warm. A good chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-74 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
Thursday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. A few scattered morning showers and storms are possible. Lower confidence on Friday’s forecast.
Temperatures: High temperatures 70-75 degrees.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
Right now, Saturday and Sunday appear dry and a little cooler. Perhaps highs in the 60s.
Let’s monitor the last week of April and the first week of May for severe weather. Signals are there.
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- The amazing weather continues. Loving this.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances later this week
- Another system early next week. More thunderstorms?
Wow. What else can I say. The weather certainly did a turn about. A week ago we will talking about frost and cold weather. Now, summer weather has arrived! Temperatures reached above 80 degrees on Sunday afternoon. And, more 80 degree readings are likely on Monday. Got to love this weather. Spring was bound to arrive sooner or later. Let’s hope it sticks around. It appears it will.
If it hasn’t bloomed already then it certainly will now.
Outside of the BEAUTIFUL weather, the next weather story will be a storm system pulling out of the southwest United States. This will deliver clouds and an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Extremely heavy rain is falling from Texas into Nebraska. Many many inches of rain are forecast to fall in those areas. Thankfully the system will lose strength as it shifts eastward. And, it will be moving. It has stalled to our west. But, it will kick eastward on Tuesday – Thursday.
The main time frame for precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday night. Centered on Wednesday night/Thursday. That is when widespread precipitation will occur.
With that said, some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as Tuesday afternoon and night. Mainly over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois. Whether precipitation, on Tuesday night, can shift further eastward is questionable. See graphics below.
Rainfall totals, through the entire week, will average 0.40″-0.80″. And, where thunderstorms occur, totals higher than one inch will be possible.
The good news is that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms is small. The risk is not zero. But, the risk is minimal.
Tuesday morning future-cast radar from NAM. This actually does show some precipitation over our region. It is my opinion that the NAM is too fast in bringing precipitation into the area. There are a lot of questions about this subject.
The image below is for Wednesday morning at 7 am. Some precipitation over our region according to the NAM model. Again, I think the NAM is a bit too fast with bringing precipitation into the area. GFS and EC model guidance is slower. I believe they have a better handle on the setup.
Moving ahead to Wednesday evening. Rain chances will certainly be on the increase Wednesday into Wednesday night. Perhaps the highest chances for widespread precipitation will arrive on Wednesday night/Thursday.
We should dry out Friday morning into Sunday. That is the current forecast. Some guidance attempts to hang precipitation in our region into Friday evening. For now, I will stick with precipitation ending on Friday morning.
Saturday and Sunday (of the upcoming week) could be a few degrees cooler. Perhaps highs in the 60s.
I am watching another system for early next week (April 26th-27th-28th). Thunderstorms will be possible during that time frame. Monitor updates.
Have a nice week ahead.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Widespread severe weather is not anticipated through this week.
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday night: Maybe a thunderstorm over mainly southeast Missouri. Small chances elsewhere
Wednesday: Some thunderstorms are possible. Likely below severe levels.
Wednesday night – Thursday night: Thunderstorms are likely. Severe weather risk appears small. Not zero, but minimal. Monitor updates.
I am watching early next week for more thunderstorm development. Perhaps a bit more active during that time frame.
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No major changes in this update.
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Lightning possible Tuesday and Tuesday night over southeast Missouri. Small chance on Tuesday. Perhaps a few scattered thunderstorms Tuesday night.
Better chances for thunderstorms as we move into Wednesday, Wednesday night, Thursday, and Thursday night. A few downpours possible. Lightning will be the main concern. Severe weather risk appears minimal. Not zero, but minimal.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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No significant rain is anticipated through Monday night.
Next system arrives on Tuesday into Friday. Centered on Wednesday night/Thursday. I can’t rule out some rain chances over southeast Missouri on Tuesday and Tuesday night. But, the bigger rain chances should hold off until Wednesday night, Thursday, and Thursday night.
Here is the rainfall outlook for this week. Keep in mind that thunderstorms can always produce heavier totals.
This first map is through Wednesday morning. Second map through Thursday morning. Third map through Friday morning. Rainfall totals.
Just look at the heavy rain from Texas into Nebraska. That will NOT be moving east. Our region will experience lighter amounts.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
