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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Friday – Some clouds. A small chance for precipitation (less than 20%). Mild. Highs in the 70’s. East/southeast winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay. Chances for precipitation will be less than 30%
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy. Temperatures will be in the middle 50’s.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy. Temperatures will be in the 70’s.
Friday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Lows in the 60’s. Southerly/southeasterly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay. Chances for precipitation will be less than 30%
Saturday – Quite a few clouds in the morning with a 30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Cloudy in the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms likely be the middle of afternoon into the late afternoon hours. Precipitation will spread through southeast Missouri first and then into the rest of the area. Highs will be in the 68 to 74 degree range. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for late in the day into the evening hours.
Saturday night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the 60’s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunday – A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Monitor updates concerning the potential for a few storms becoming severe with hail and high winds. A second area of low pressure will move through the region on Sunday. The timing of the second low will be key to precipitation chances Sunday morning vs Sunday afternoon vs Sunday night. It might end up that there will be a break in the rain chances at some point on Sunday. Keep that in mind. Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case rain lingers throughout the day vs just part of the day.
Rain/storm chances should linger into Sunday night and perhaps early Monday morning.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Not too bad for Friday into Friday night (rain chances less than 20%)
2. Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Saturday afternoon into at least Sunday afternoon/evening
3. A few storms could become severe on Sunday
4. Long range is very wet (see extended discussion)
5. Value added content coming
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Synopsis…
Some heavy rain fell over the region on Wednesday night. Here are the rainfall totals. Feast or famine from that event. No rain fell across half our region. Some places picked up more than 1.5″ over our eastern counties. Quite a bit of lightning, as well.
Scale is on the left and you can click the image for a larger view.
Let’s look at rainfall totals from the PAST 7 days.
Quite a bit of rain has fallen over parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley’s. Click image for a larger view. Image is from weatherbell.com
Let’s pull out even further and check out the 45 day rainfall totals (this is what HAS already fallen).
Today (Friday) might be the best day of the next three days. Mostly dry is the forecast. A few showers and perhaps a popup thunderstorm. But, overall most areas will stay dry.
Our southwest storm system, that I have been talking about all week, will finally pull out of the southwest United States, over the weekend. It will come out of the Rockies and track into our region. Eventually it will no longer be a closed low, but an open wave. Basically that means it is weakening and not strengthening. But, that doesn’t mean it won’t produce plenty of rain.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move into our region by Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Locally heavy rain is likely with this system. Rainfall totals of 1-2″ will be possible in the region. Locally heavier amounts are likely in some counties. Similar to recent systems.
If you have outdoor plans from Saturday afternoon into Sunday night then you might want to have a plan B. Rain chances will be greater than 70%.
A second area of low pressure will move through the region on Sunday. The timing of the second low will be key to precipitation chances Sunday morning vs Sunday afternoon vs Sunday night. It might end up that there will be a break in the rain chances at some point on Sunday. Keep that in mind.
Let’s look at Sunday, for just a moment. It might be that we end up dry part of Sunday. We will be waiting for a second area of low pressure to push in from the west. Sunday might end up with quite a few hours with no precipitation, again keep this in mind.
This is the NAM future-cast radar. The first image is for the noon hour. Not much going on. But, we check out the second graphic and see another line of storms moving into the area. Some of these storms could be strong. Monitor updates.
The second image is for around 7 pm Sunday evening. Images are from weatherbell.com
This image below is for around 7 pm. You can see rain/storms moving in from the west.
Let’s take a look at the 500 mb maps. These maps are at 18,000′. The winds aloft. You can see on this first map the location of the closed low on Friday. That is the closed off white lines out over the southwest.
The colors represent winds. See the northern jet stream? It is tracking north of the border. The river of red and purple colors. Meanwhile, the southern jet stream is south of our closed low. That is why the low has taken so long to move. It has been separated from the jet streams.
Now, let move ahead to Saturday and Sunday. Same upper level map. You can see that it is finally moving. The jet stream has dipped and picked it up. Thus, moving it along.
Moving along is good news. We can finally (at least temporarily) pull out of our unsettled pattern of daily rain chances.
Future-cast radar for Saturday afternoon. Check out the widespread showers and thunderstorms moving into our region. Again, severe weather chances appear small (but not zero). If a strong storm were to popup then the main concern would probably be strong winds and maybe small hail.
PWAT values will be on the rise by Saturday afternoon and night. Meteorologists use PWAT values to determine the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. The higher the number the more likely we will experience heavy downpours.
Let’s compare the Friday graphic to the Saturday graphic. You can see the warm colors spike ahead of our storm system moving out of the southwest United States.
The warm colors represent higher numbers. Images are from wright-weather.com
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major concerns for Friday and Friday night.
Saturday – thunderstorm chances increase Saturday afternoon and night. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning will be the main concern.
Sunday – thunderstorm chances will continue into Sunday night. Lightning and heavy downpours being the main concern. Perhaps a few storms could produce gusty winds. Monitor updates as we move along.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Umbrella weather arrives on Saturday afternoon into Sunday. If you have outdoor plans then perhaps have a plan B.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – Rainfall totals Saturday through Sunday night. Some places could pick up more than 2″ of rain. Locally heavy thunderstorms will be the culprit.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE for Friday and TWO for Saturday and Sunday.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – A few heavy storms possible
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe storms possible with hail and high winds
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Once again rainfall totals will vary. Widespread 0.50″-1.00″ of rain will fall Saturday afternoon into Sunday night. Some places will pick up 1-2″ of rain with locally heavier amounts likely. Wet!
Click image for a larger view of this weatherbell.com image
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Once we make it through the weekend then perhaps a few dry days will greet out region. A collective – YAY – is in order. But, how long will it last? There are some indications that more unsettled weather arrives towards the middle of next week and end of next week. But, storm track is in question.
Let’s just assume for a moment that the GFS model is right (big assumption on a long range model). This is what it is showing for next week into the first part of May. A parade of rain systems. Some thunderstorms, as well.
This is next Wednesday night
Purple represents precipitation on these maps. Maps are all from wright-weather.com
Next Thursday afternoon
Next Friday night
Next Sunday (April 26th)
May 1st. WAY WAY out there. But, you get the idea from this model that it is going to be wet in our region. This would represent a continuation of the pattern that has been around since the middle of February. Wet.
I will keep an eye on it. The overall pattern seems to be stuck on repeat.
We do have below normal temperatures forecast for next week into the first part of May.
Here is the departure map. How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be?
Dates are at the top of the image. Images are from weatherbell.com
April 26th through May 1st
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
