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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Friday Night – Some clouds. We should see some clearing on Friday night. There is a small chance for a few remaining showers on Friday evening. Most likely over southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Around a 10-20% chance at any given location. Meaning, there will probably be a few showers on radar. Odds are they miss you.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some spotty wet roadways
Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. 20% shower over southeast Missouri. Some indications of a few clouds over southern Missouri on Saturday. If those clouds don’t depart then temperatures will be 4-8 degrees cooler in those locations. Keep that in mind. Otherwise, should be a nice day.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-76 degrees. Where clouds linger you can expect 64-68 degrees.
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% – 20% over southeast Missouri
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated over southeast Missouri
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Likely none
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds East and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Warmer. Spring. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: High temperatures 75-80 degrees.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds east/southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Mostly sunny. Very warm. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: High temperatures 75-80 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% over southeast Missouri
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roads and lightning possible over southeast Missouri.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. A small chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Mainly over southeast Missouri, but monitor updates.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-76 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Maybe some lightning. Low confidence.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Especially over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinosi.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures 74-78 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Thursday – Cloudy. Warm. A good chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-74 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
Thursday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures 70-75 degrees.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warm weekend ahead of us!
- Next storm system arrives Wednesday/Thursday. Trend has been slower arrival time.
- Stormier end of month into May?
The big weather story is going to be the warm temperatures. Finally! It has been quite awhile since we have experienced multiple days of nice weather. But, that is what we are going to have this weekend. A great weekend to go camping.
My only concern for Saturday would be some stubborn clouds showing up in the data. Mainly over southern Missouri. This is the wild card in the forecast. If those clouds don’t depart then temperatures in those areas would be a bit lower. Keep that in mind. Hoping the clouds depart.
Expect widespread high temperatures in the 70s on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. And, dry weather is also anticipated. A GREAT weekend on tap for the region! I can almost hear you cheering. I can’t rule out an 80 degree reading on Sunday or Monday.
Our next weather system will not arrive until Wednesday and Thursday. The trend continues to be for a slower arrival. At one time it appeared that it might arrive as early as Sunday and Monday. But, the guidance has been slowing the progress of the system coming out of the southwest United States.
The long range forecast appears warm and stormy. I am watching the last week of April into the first ten days of May. There are some signals that the Central United States may have to deal with a stormier pattern.
For now, let’s enjoy the weekend!!!!
I want to let everyone know the following:
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday – Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday and Wednesday – perhaps some thunderstorms. Better chances towards Wednesday night or Thursday. Lower than normal confidence.
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Updated temperatures and cloud cover. Also, I pushed off storm chances into the middle of next week (for the most part). Small chances Tuesday/Tuesday night. Better chances Wednesday night/Thursday. Low confidence on timing.
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Friday night through next Wednesday night – No concerns
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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No significant rain is anticipated through Sunday night.
I am watching another system for the middle of next week. Also, perhaps a more active pattern towards the end of the month into the first part of May. Warm, as well.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
