April 15, 2019. Non-subscribers update.

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Today: No
.
Tomorrow: No

Frost Monday morning.
Widespread rain likely Wednesday night/Thursday.
Spotty showers and storms on Friday. Dry Saturday and Sunday.
Gusty winds Tuesday into Friday.
Locally heavy rain Wednesday night/Thursday. Right now, it appears a widespread 0.70″ to 1.40″ will occur. Monitor updates. Some of the guidance shows higher totals.

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Today through Wednesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible mainly Wednesday night into Friday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be intense Wednesday night and Thursday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible on Wednesday night.

Thursday through Sunday.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday into Friday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense on Thursday. Small hail is also possible on Friday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible on Thursday.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 15, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Patchy morning fog. Morning frost. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming southerly at 5 to 10 during the morning and 7 to 14 mph during the afternoon. Highs gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:21AM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Not as cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 48° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:30 PM
Moonrise: 3:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:18 AM

April 16, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly winds at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:31 PM
Moonrise: 4:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:57 AM

April 17, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A 20% chance of showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Most areas should remain dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
.
Wednesday night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west. A few storms could be intense. Locally heavy downpours are possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 6% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:32 PM
Moonrise: 5:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:32 AM

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy storms can’t be ruled out. Highs in the middle 70’s. Lows in the middle to upper 40’s. Southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

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Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered activity. Some small hail possible. Highs in the middle to upper 50’s. Lows in the middle to upper 40’s. Variable wind at 10 to 20 mph.

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Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Cool. Highs in the middle 60’s. Lows in the upper 40’s. West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: No severe storms.

Wednesday through Sunday: A few storms could be intense on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Damaging wind will be the main concern. Lightning. Heavy downpours.

Lightning is possible Thursday afternoon. The severe weather risk on Thursday will need to be monitored.

Small hail and lightning will be possible on Friday.

Severe weather is not in the forecast Saturday or Sunday.

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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Cool today. Winds picking up as we move through the day.
Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday and Thursday.
Locally heavy rain possible mid-week. Perhaps some strong thunderstorms.
Confidence in severe weather is low. Monitor updates on Wednesday night/Thursday.
Cooler by Friday with a few thunderstorms (small hail possible).

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

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Forecast discussion.

Today into Wednesday morning.

Calm weather today into Tuesday night. Highs today in the 60’s. Highs by Tuesday in the middle to upper 70’s! Our chill won’t last long.

Winds will begin to pick up over the next 72 hours, as well. Gusty winds. This will be in response to a new weather system taking shape to our west.

The strongest winds will be on Thursday. Southerly winds in the 20 to 30 mph range. Gustier if we have sunshine.

Winds will mostly be from the south as we move through Wednesday night.

Clouds will increase by late Tuesday night and especially on Wednesday.

A few light showers will be possible on Wednesday. The bulk of the rain, however, should hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will once again become widespread across the region.

Some of the storms could be strong on Wednesday night into Thursday. For now, the severe weather threat appears conditional. What does that mean? It means that we will need to see if there is enough CAPE Wednesday night and Thursday for severe storms to tap into. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms.

The brunt of the system should arrive Wednesday night and Thursday morning. CAPE is usually lower during this time-frame.

Monitor updates. I can’t rule out severe weather. The details will need to be ironed out.

Unsettled weather will linger into Friday. See discussion below.

Weekend

At this time it appears that Friday will deliver cooler temperatures and clouds. Spotty showers and thunderstorms are likely as a cold pocket of air passes overhead. This could mean cold-air funnels and small hail. This is not uncommon during the early spring months.

Notice the cool temperature wrapping around the low (low pressure rotates counter-clockwise).

Time-stamp upper left. Click to enlarge.

Here is a sounding for Friday at 1 PM.

A sounding shows us what is happening upstairs. A look above.

This is a low freezing level. Under six-thousand feet. If thunderstorms form then hail would likely occur. Small hail would be possible if this verifies. Still several days out.

I highlighted the freezing level. The second highlight is the K index. That is a measure of instability.

The last one if CAPE. CAPE is energy for storms to tap into.

Click to enlarge.

Saturday and Sunday will be cooler and dry. For now, the risk of frost appears low. I will keep an eye on it.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Our next round of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms will arrive on Wednesday and Thursday. Perhaps peaking Wednesday night.

There could be some intense thunderstorms. Several factors are working against that. The time of day is one of them.

If the front pushes through during the overnight hours then instability won’t be as great.

Monitor updates (as mentioned in the forecast discussion above).

Timestamp upper left.

GFS model

Click to enlarge.

Dates to monitor for precipitation.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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The Ohio Valley video

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Long Range video

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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WeatherBrains Episode 690

Tonight’s WeatherBrains features the on-air weather team at WCBI-TV in Columbus, MS. Joining us are meteorologists Keith Gibson, Jacob Dickey, Jacob Riley and Alex Puckett. Gentleman, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: