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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for showers. A thunderstorm possible. Mainly southern counties in the region.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Friday – Partly sunny. A chance for showers over our southern counties. Warm.
Temperatures: High temperatures of 66-72. Will monitor temperatures. It could be a bit warmer if clouds move out of the area.
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% – 30% at any given location.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Otherwise, none.
Friday Night – Some clouds. We should see some clearing on Friday night. Slight chance for an evening shower. 10%-20% at any given location.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways
Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-76
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Likely none
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds East and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Warmer. Spring.
Temperatures: High temperatures 75-80 degrees.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Monday – Partly sunny. Warmer. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures 75-80 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-76 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Maybe some lightning. Low confidence.
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Southern half of the region is dealing with an upper level disturbance
- Our much talked about warming trend has arrived
- Watching another system for next week.
- Could the end of the month turn stormier?
- Temperatures into the 80s in the long range
We have two weather stories to follow. The first one is an upper level disturbance that has delivered clouds and some showers to the southern half of the region. This system will slowly move out of the area on Friday and Friday night.
The great news is that we should see clouds depart by the weekend. Saturday and Sunday should bring plenty of sunshine and temperatures soaring into the 70s! It will finally feel like spring. And, for a solid weekend! About time we had several warm days in a row. It is spring, after all.
Temperatures by Monday could even reach into the upper 70s. Will someone touch 80 degrees? Certainly is a possibility.
Our next weather maker will approach the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. The trend in the guidance has been to slow this system down. At one time it appeared it would arrive on Sunday and Monday. Not it appears that it won’t arrive until Tuesday/Wednesday. All of the models are showing a weak system. I will continue to track its progress.
The GFS does not bring rain into the region until late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
This is the GFS map from weatherbell.com. This is for 7 am on Wednesday morning.
Long range models indicate a stormier/warmer pattern towards the end of the month into the first part of May. Let’s enjoy the calm.
The long range cycle indicates numerous storm system to monitor during the last nine days of the month and the first half of May. This will be a shift in the pattern we have experienced over the past couple of months. We have been blessed with very few severe weather threats. That may be about to change. Much warmer air is showing up in the charts. Much more humid air is showing up in the long range charts. The cold air, over the past month, has been the reason for our lack of severe thunderstorms. It is a trade off.
Let’s take a look at the temperature outlook for the 6-10 and 8-14 day time period. Above normal temperatures are favored.
And, the 8-14 day temperature outlook
The 6-10 day precipitation outlook is neutral. Neither above or below normal precipitation is favored.
I want to let everyone know the following:
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday – can’t rule out some thunderstorms. Mainly on Monday or Monday night/Tuesday. The timing of this system is still questionable. The trend has been to slow it down.
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No significant changes in this update.
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Wednesday night through Monday night – No concerns
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over the southern half of the region into Friday. Rainfall totals, outside of any thunderstorms, will be light. Light meaning less than 0.20″.
Where thunderstorms occur, you could pick locally heavier totals.
The next rain event will likely hold off until Monday night into Tuesday night. The trend has been to slow that system down.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
