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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
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Wednesday night – No concerns for frost
Thursday night – No concerns for frost
Friday night – No concerns for frost
Saturday night – No concerns for frost
Sunday night – No concerns for frost
Wednesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for a few light showers.
Temperatures: Lows from 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Winds mainly from the east at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Mainly the southern half of the region.
Thursday – Some clouds. Mild. A chance for a few showers. Mainly southern counties in the region. Can’t rule out a rumble of thunder.
Temperatures: High temperatures 64-68 degrees
Winds: East winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. A couple of lightning strikes possible.
Thursday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for showers. A thunderstorm possible. Mainly southern counties in the region.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Friday – Partly sunny. A slight chance for showers over our southern counties. Warm.
Temperatures: High temperatures of 66-72. Will monitor temperatures. It could be a bit warmer if clouds move out of the area.
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Otherwise, none.
Friday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A slight chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways
Saturday – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures 66-74 degrees. If the disturbance lingers longer than anticipated then temperatures might not be as warm on Saturday. Keep that in mind.
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Likely none
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. Spring.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-78 degrees.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% far western counties of southeast Missouri
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Likely none.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Monday – Partly sunny. Warm. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-76 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Weak disturbance will bring some showers and thunderstorms into the area
- Warming trend into the weekend
- Monitoring the next system for Monday into Tuesday.
- Stormier pattern at the end of April into May?
We have two weather stories over the coming days. One is a weak disturbance that will brush the southern half of the region. Clouds and showers are possible starting late Wednesday night and lasting into Friday. A couple of lightning strikes will also be possible. I do not expect severe weather.
Rainfall totals from this weak disturbance will be less than 0.25″ for most areas. Perhaps the best chance for measurable rainfall will be over far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky/Tennessee.
IF thunderstorms develop then locally heavy rain can occur. This would likely be the exception vs the norm. Thunderstorms can always produce heavier totals. Some of the high resolution guidance does show a few heavier downpours over northwest Tennessee and perhaps the Missouri Bootheel and areas near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
The northern half of the region may experience some clouds, but should remain precipitation free.
The system will be slow to move out. Clouds will linger into Friday night. The current thinking is that rain chances Friday night and Saturday will be small. The system should be on the way out by Friday evening. If it is slower to move out then rain chances will linger into Friday night and perhaps even Saturday. Right now I put the chances for rain on Saturday as very low.
Temperatures will warm a little bit with each passing day. By Friday, if the clouds exit, we will rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s. It appears that 70s will be a good bet for Saturday and Sunday. Again, the only fly in the ointment would be if clouds linger longer than anticipated.
Another storm system approaches our region on Monday and Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the system. The system has been slowing in the guidance. The trend is slower in bringing precipitation into our region.
You can see the upper level disturbance here on this map from wright-weather.com This is the 500 mb map. The brighter colors represent lift in the atmosphere.
This first image shows you the low over our region on Thursday. You can see our next system approaching the Pacific Northwest. That should be in our region early next week.
This next image is for Saturday morning. Our low has weakened.
We take a look at CAPE> CAPE is basically energy available for thunderstorms. Just a hint of CAPE over our region on Thursday. Thus, a few lightning strikes will be possible. No severe storms.
Let’s look at the GFS guidance from weatherbell.com
Here is the GFS precipitation map for Thursday morning at 7 am. This map shows you the rainfall totals from the previous 12 hours. You can see some light green in our region. Not much. Better chances south vs north. Keep that in mind. Northern areas may not see much at all from this particular system. Weak system, at that.
This next map is for 7 pm on Thursday evening. Again, this map is showing the previous six hours worth of rainfall totals. The GFS has precipitation fairly far north.
This next map is for 7 am on Friday morning.
Let’s look at the WRF model. The future-cast radar charts. What radar COULD look like during each time frame. One models opinion.
This first image is for early Thursday morning around 7 am. A few light showers possible.
This next image is for 11 am on Thursday morning.
This next image (below) is for Thursday evening at 7 pm.
This next image is for 9 pm on Thursday evening. Still some light precipitation in the region.
This next image is for 1 am on Friday morning. Still some light showers in the region.
Another system will approach early next week. All of the guidance indicates it will be weakening as it moves eastward. Some showers and storms are possible in our region on Monday and Tuesday. Another system may approach our region on Wednesday night into Thursday night. Still quite a bit of time to monitor that system. Long range guidance indicates unsettled weather the last week of April into the first week of May.
Here is the 500 mb wind field map for Saturday morning. You can see our system pushing out of the southwest United States and moving eastward. A big dip in the jet stream as it carves out a trough. Our region is dominated by a ridge of high pressure. Troughs dip down and ridges push upward.
A trough usually means unsettled weather. A ridge normally means dry weather and warm.
I want to let everyone know the following:
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t rule out a rumble of thunder.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t rule out a rumble of thunder.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday night: Monday – can’t rule out some thunderstorms. Mainly on Monday. The timing of this system is still questionable. The trend has been to slow it down.
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No major changes. I did update temperatures by a couple of degrees and mentioned thunder for Thursday.
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Wednesday night through Sunday night – No concerns
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
.Some light rain is possible over the coming 48 hours. A weak disturbance will provide just enough lift for light rain and perhaps a scattered thunderstorm. This would mainly occur over far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. The southern half of the region. Amounts will be light. Mostly less than 0.25″.
IF thunderstorms develop on Thursday or Thursday night then a few storms could drop heavier totals. Keep that in mind.
Here is the official rainfall forecast map. You can see how the rain just barely creeps into our region from the south.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
