April 13, 2019: Saturday update. Free for everyone today.

Here is the latest future-cast radar

This is the Hrrr model guidance.

Timestamp upper left.

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Today: Yes. Some locally heavy rain will occur late this afternoon over southeast Missouri and area-wide tonight. Thunderstorms are possible between 11 PM and 6 AM. Some of the storms could produce strong winds. There is a low-end severe weather risk. The risk is highest over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

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Tomorrow: Yes. Before sunrise, there could be some intense thunderstorms. The main concern will be damaging wind gusts. Overall, the risk is a low-end one. Monitor my app messages. The risk is highest over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

Locally heavy rain Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night/Sunday morning. Widespread 0.80″ to 1.60″. Bands of higher totals likely.
Frost is likely Sunday night if the wind dies down and if we have clearing sky conditions. Most areas will range from 34 to 38 degrees.
Additional showers and storms are possible by Wednesday night or Thursday. Some storms could be intense.

ANNOUNCEMENT:

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Today through Monday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible this afternoon into Sunday morning. The main concern will be 6 PM to 6 AM tonight/tomorrow morning. A couple of storms could form in the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky tomorrow afternoon. That would be along a line from Owensboro south to Murray and then eastward.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Yes. A few storms could produce high winds between 9 PM and 6 AM tonight and tomorrow morning. The concern will peak over far southeast Missouri/Bootheel and northwest Tennessee between 9 PM tonight and 1 AM tomorrow morning. It will peak over southern Illinois and western Kentucky between 12 AM and 4 AM. Monitor app messages.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is likely Saturday night/Sunday morning. A couple of thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. That would be along a line from Owensboro south to LBL and then eastward.

Tuesday through Friday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely Wednesday into Thursday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. I will be monitoring Wednesday/Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are possible.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor updates. I will keep an eye on the Wednesday/Thursday system. Locally heavy rain is possible.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 13, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. Increasing winds this afternoon with gusts above 25 mph. Rain increasing south to north as the day wears on. Rain arrives first over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. It will be later this afternoon for northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. A few locally heavy downpours are possible over southeast Missouri this afternoon. Northwest Tennessee, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 100% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 80% NW TN 100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early. Becoming numerous. Increasing coverage during the day from north to south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning risk over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? During the morning monitor radars. Have a plan B during the afternoon and check radars.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low to moderate
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Rain. Locally heavy rain is likely. Thunderstorms developing. A few storms could produce 55 mph wind gusts between 9 PM and 6 AM tonight and tomorrow morning. The concern will peak over far southeast Missouri/Bootheel and northwest Tennessee between 9 PM tonight and 1 AM tomorrow morning. It will peak over southern Illinois and western Kentucky between 12 AM and 4 AM. Monitor updates. Final rain totals of 0.80″ t0 1.6″. Locally higher totals where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 100% Southeast MO 100% Southern IL 100% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 100% Western KY 100% NW TN 100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor severe risk late Saturday night. A few storms could produce heavy rain and 55 mph wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:28 PM
Moonrise: 12:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:46 AM

April 14, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Falling temperatures. Highs will occur early in the day. I lowered temperatures because the path of the low will be further southeast than earlier forecast projections. Rain chances were also lowered because of this. Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. The rain shield will move east early in the day. Some patchy light rain before noon. A chance of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon from Owensboro, Kentucky, south to Murray, Kentucky, and then eastward. The greatest chance may be a bit east of that line. Either way, a storm could form ahead of the main cold front that will move across the region. If a storm forms then it could be intense.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium 60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 48° to 54° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 52° to 54° Our far eastern counties may reach the 60’s before the low moves northeast of the area. That would include areas like Hopkinsville, KY. More like 56 to 62. NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty. A breezy day on tap as the low pulls away from the area.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% to 50% Western KY 40% to 50% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds. Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor Sunday afternoon over our far eastern counties (Owensboro to Murray and then eastward). A few storms could reform.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel plans. I would monitor radars. A few rain showers are likely in the region.
UV Index: 3 to 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: A slight chance of evening sprinkles. Evening clouds departing. Patchy fog where clouds clear. Turning colder. Frost likely if the wind dies down. Coldest temperatures will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° SE MO 34° to 36° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 35° to 38° NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph before midnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 10% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Fog and frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:29 PM
Moonrise: 2:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:34 AM

April 15, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium 60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 66° to 68° South IL 62° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming south at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 during the PM hours.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:29 PM
Moonrise: 3:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:18 AM

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy PM hours. Warm and breezy. Cloudy at night. A 20% chance of showers after midnight. Highs in the middle 70’s. Lows in the upper 50’s. South and southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph

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Wednesday: Cloudy. Warm and breezy. A 30% to 40% chance of scattered showers during the day. A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night. Highs in the lower middle 70’s. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. South and southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely. Some storms could be intense Wednesday night.

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Thursday: Cloudy. Warm. Showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the risk of strong storms. Highs in the lower middle 70’s. Lows in the middle to upper 50’s. South and southwest wind at 15 to 30 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This graphic is from Friday (no changes in the forecast numbers)

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Lightning is likely tonight into early Sunday morning (mainly before 6 AM). Some lightning is possible Sunday afternoon from Owensboro, Kentucky, south to Murray, Kentucky, and then eastward. A couple of storms may reform ahead of the cold front. A few storms could produce 55 mph wind gusts Saturday night/Sunday morning. Most likely this would be from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee. The risk is less as you travel northward. A slight chance of a severe thunderstorm. The risk of severe weather appears isolated. It is not a zero risk. I will be sending out app messages if necessary.

Monday through Thursday: Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night and Thursday. Monitor updates.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

Rain totals on the models vary (as usual).

Here are four models. This is today into Sunday.

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Showers and thunderstorms.
Frost Sunday night.
Another chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Some intense storms are possible.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

Yes. I lowered temperatures on Sunday. The low is going to track further southeast.

I lowered rain chances after 6 AM on Sunday. Again, this is because of the track of the area of low pressure.

I dropped Sunday night temperatures by one or two degrees. Added the word likely to frost.

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

Yes. Lightning is possible late this afternoon into early Sunday morning.

Yes. A few storms could produce 55 mph winds.

Yes. Locally heavy rain is likely. Some areas could end up with two or more inches. This could flood some commonly flooded roadways.

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Forecast discussion.

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

Weekend

Rain showers are spreading northward from Arkansas and Tennessee.

See the live interactive radars.

A significant outbreak of severe weather is possible today across Texas, southern Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The severe weather risk lessens as you move into our area.

A few storms could produce high winds tonight. The greatest risk over southeast is Missouri is before midnight. The risk shifts east/northeast into Kentucky and Tennessee between 12 AM and 4 AM. Southern Illinois should monitor the 12 Am to 4 AM time-frame. Extreme southern Illinois has a better chance of a few intense storms.

Overall, the severe weather risk is fairly low. Winds of 60 mph and above are considered severe. This is a marginal event in our local area.

Rain totals of 0.80″ to 1.6″ will be possible. Locally higher. The heaviest activity will likely be Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Some thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon. The concern would be from Owensboro, Kentucky, southeast to Murray, Kentucky, and then eastward. There remain some questions above whether new storms will redevelop in this area after 12 PM. For now, monitor app messages.

We will have gusty winds into Sunday. Gusts above 30 mph are likely from time to time.

Clouds will help keep temperatures cooler both Saturday and Sunday.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Let’s take a look at a few models.

These are future-cast radars. This is what the model thinks will happen. Models are models. They are rarely exact. Take the general idea from these animations.

Hrrr model

Timestamp upper left.

NAM 3K Model

GFS model

SPC WRF model

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

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You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 690

Tonight’s WeatherBrains features the on-air weather team at WCBI-TV in Columbus, MS. Joining us are meteorologists Keith Gibson, Jacob Dickey, Jacob Riley and Alex Puckett. Gentleman, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: