9 AM Update
Check the radars, rain is moving into the region. No severe storms today. Lightning possible.
I have increased rain chances for tonight, as well.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms developing. Some locally heavy downpours possible. I don’t think it is going to rain all day. There will be on and off chances throughout the day and into the evening hours. Lightning threat is moderate. Highs will be in the 70’s. South and southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Winds will turn out of the west/northwest late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. Rain is possible.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mild. Temperatures mainly in the 60’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mild. Temperatures mainly in the 70’s. West winds at 10-15 mph.
Monday night – A chance for evening showers and thunderstorms. Then a small chance for remaining showers. It will be cooler. Lows will be in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. North winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Early evening rain possible.
Tuesday – Some clouds and sun. Breezy at times. A chance for a shower. Cooler than Monday. Highs will mainly be in the 60’s. North and northeast winds at 10-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Tuesday night – Becoming cloudy. A chance for a shower. Lows will be in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Northeast/east winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Rain and storms likely on Monday
2. Calm on Tuesday. A small chance for a stray shower. Should be mostly dry. Cooler.
3. Rain chances return on Wednesday into the weekend. Unsettled weather.
Rain and thunderstorms are going to be the rule for your Monday and Monday evening weather forecast. The most widespread precipitation will be over our southern counties. Northern and northwest counties will have rain and storm chances, but perhaps not as much coverage as southern areas.
Some of the data brings a large area of showers and thunderstorms into the area from southern Mo and northern AR. This areas shifts eastward between the mid afternoon hours and evening hours on Monday.
Data also shows a line of showers and storms moving in from the west/northwest during the late morning and afternoon hours.
I don’t think it will rain all day. On and off chances throughout the day and evening hours. There will likely be many hours of dry weather.
The southern areas will include the Missouri Bootheel into far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Rainfall totals could exceed 1″ in some counties. Locally heavy downpours.
There will likely be a wide variety of rainfall totals from north to south. Again, heaviest totals over southern counties. Not expecting severe weather, but a strong storm is possible with gusty winds and pea size hail.
Some of the data shows less than 0.20″ of precipitation falling over parts of southeast MO and southern IL. Something to keep in mind. There is not a strong signal either way on rainfall totals. The only real signal is that the southern counties would likely receive the most rainfall when all is said and one.
We will see how it goes. Fairly low confidence on some of the above.
Showers may linger into Tuesday. Latest data keeps them around. The dry weather won’t last. More rain and storms will develop during the middle and end of the week. See the extended discussion further down in the blog for more details.
Here are some of your storm tracking tools.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Any outdoor activities could have to deal with some lightning on Monday and Monday evening. Keep this in mind.
Severe weather threat appears to be small over the next 24 hours. I can’t rule out a storm producing gusty winds and perhaps pea to dime size hail. Not expecting severe thunderstorms.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Rivers are still rising. Monitor the latest river forecasts. The link below has all the rivers listed.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Umbrellas! Showers and storms will be possible on Monday into Monday evening. Severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t rule out a storm producing 30-45 mph winds and small hail. Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card will be rainfall totals. Low confidence on how much rain falls on Monday and Monday evening. I still believe the heaviest amounts will be over the southern half of the region. That would include the Missouri Bootheel, far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Some places could pick up more than 1″ of rain. Areas to the north are expected to receive less rainfall…more along the lines of 0.25″-0.50″.
Lower than normal confidence on rainfall totals for the area.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE. Some thunderstorms are possible today.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder is possible.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates. Storms possible.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates. Storms possible.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates. Storms possible.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Keep in mind there will be a wide range of rainfall totals for the region.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Unsettled weather, but low confidence in the details.
A large upper level low (perhaps even a cut-off low) will slowly move across the central and southern United States. This slow moving low will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Historically these upper level lows can cause hail. Cold air aloft is the culprit. The question will be the track of the upper level low. Latest models have trended a bit further north with the low.
If you read the Sunday update then you might remember the maps showing the path of the low. It was a bit further south. If the low tracks over us then the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase.
Right now it appears that on and off rain/storm chances will be the rule from Wednesday right on into the weekend. Unsettled weather. Occasionally some heavy showers and thunderstorms may develop. I can’t completely rule out a severe thunderstorm. Right now it does not look like a severe thunderstorm outbreak. But, a few storms could produce high winds and hail. Monitor updates as we move forward.
It is not a clear cut forecast…that means confidence on the details is lower than normal.
The late afternoon data even stalls the low out in the Rockies…which also leads to little confidence in the long range part of the forecast.
Next Saturday’s 500 mb map. The low is out in Colorado.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
