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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Sunday – Beautiful spring weather! A few clouds from time to time. Warm. High temperatures in the 70’s. South winds at 5-10 mph. Enjoy the day.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunday night – Increasing clouds. A chance for showers and few thunderstorms…especially late. Coverage might be more widespread over southern counties vs northern. That means the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky might have better chances for rain than areas further north (Farmington, MO to Mt Vernon, IL). Low temperatures will be in the 60’s. South winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B – especially southern counties. I think most of the rain will hold off until late Sunday night.
Monday – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Once again the best chances for widespread rain might be the southern counties. That would be from Poplar Bluff, MO towards Metropolis, IL and then southward. We will see how this goes. My confidence in how Monday turns out is not very high. Portions of the area may not pick up much rainfall. Areas near the KY/TN border might pick up the most rain. Monitor updated forecasts. High temperatures will be around 70 degrees. Southwest winds at 10 mph becoming northwest during the afternoon and evening hours.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. Confidence is low on Monday’s forecast.
Monday night – Rain showers ending. Cooler. Lows in the upper 40’s to middle 50’s. North winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Early on I would have a plan B.
Tuesday – Some clouds. Breezy at times. Cooler temperatures. High temperatures in the 60’s. North/northeast winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Beautiful Sunday!
2. Rain chances on the increase by Sunday night and Monday
3. Big debate as to how much rain does or does not fall with this system
4. Tuesday should be dry
5. More rain by Wednesday/Thursday (some storms likely)
I guess I enjoy a challenge every now and then. The forecast for Monday has become a challenge. But, first…today is going to be a wonderful day for the region. Pleasant temperatures well into the 70’s will greet those who venture outdoors. Spring!! Enjoy.
The weather takes a turn downward tonight and on Monday. We have a warm front approaching from the south and a cold front approaching from the northwest. The question is what happens in between those two systems.
It appears that precipitation will spread in from the south on Sunday evening. By Monday the entire region should have at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms. I suspect the southern half of the region will experience the best chances for widespread precipitation. That would include the Missouri Bootheel, far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Let’s look at the WRF model for Monday’s rain event.
7 AM future-cast radar. This is from weatherbell.com
12 PM on Monday – lot of shower and thunderstorm activity in the region.
And finally 7 pm on Monday…precipitation is moving out
Rainfall amounts may vary quite a bit across the region between Sunday night and Monday evening. The heaviest totals should be over the southern half of the region. Areas near the Kentucky and Tennessee border should end up with 0.40″-0.80″. The data is mixed on how much will fall over northern counties in the area. Some data shows very little rain falling in places like Farmington, MO over towards Mt Vernon, IL. My confidence is low on how Monday turns out for those areas.
Bottom line…best chances for widespread rain will likely be the southern half of the region. If you have outdoor plans on Monday then you might want to have a plan B.
Outdoor sporting events will want to be alert for lightning.
Tuesday is currently forecast to be dry.
A warm front returns to the region by Wednesday. That means increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rain and storm chances may continue right on through Thursday as another cold front approaches.
See the extended forecast discussion for details about later this week…
Radars
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Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Struggling with how to handle rain chances on Monday. I did my best on the wording.
Lightning on Monday is the only concern. Any outdoor sporting events might want to check radar and lightning data. Some debate as to how widespread storms will be on Monday. I am not forecasting severe thunderstorms. That is the good news.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Umbrella weather for late Sunday night into Monday evening. Otherwise, outdoor events on Monday might want to monitor lightning data.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – Big wild card in the forecast will be rainfall totals on Monday. I am having a difficult time with this one. The data is mixed. Portions of the area may end up with very little rain. At one time it appeared we would have a decent rain event on Monday. I think the best chances for totals exceeding 1/2″ will be over the southern counties of the forecast area. That would include counties along the KY/TN border. Again, this is definitely a wild card.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE – thunderstorms are possible Sunday night and Monday. Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms are possible, but no severe storms expected
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather anticipated
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather expected but a thunderstorm is possible
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor Updates
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals may vary quiet a bit across the region. This map may have adjustments. Monitor updates if you have outdoor plans or activities.
You can see the general idea that the heaviest totals will be over the southern half of the region.
Image from weatherbell.com – click for larger image
Notice that slice from northern parts of southeast MO into northern parts of southern IL? Light totals. Then look down towards the KY/TN border. Heavier totals. Sharp cut-off in totals. This is making the forecast tricky.
If we pull out to include the rest of the week…these are the forecast rainfall totals. BIG totals over the southlands of the United States. Let’s be thankful that rain isn’t falling over our region. We don’t need additional rain.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
A cut-off low is forecast to move our way late this week. If that happens then clouds and rain will linger even longer. Cold air aloft could mean thunderstorms with small hail, as well. I will have to monitor that part of the forecast.
The severe weather risk this week appears fairly small. There are some questions about Thursday as the system does approach from the west. Wind fields aloft are not very impressive.
CAPE values spike on Thursday, but mainly our western counties. Of course this is still several days away and will likely change. Monitor updates.
This is the NAM (one model I like to use for the short range) CAPE values for Thursday evening. Remember, CAPE is basically energy. The higher the CAPE numbers the better chance for strong and/or severe thunderstorms. Since this is still several days away we have time to monitor the dynamics. If severe weather were to occur this week then perhaps Thursday would be the best chance. According to the NAM the best chances would be over southern Missouri into Arkansas.
Wind fields are fairly weak on Thursday. That does not add much confidence to the idea of severe storms. For widespread severe weather one looks for strong wind fields aloft. I don’t see that, at this time.
Let’s monitor it as we move forward.
All in all we have been fortunate this spring. The lack of severe weather across the nation has been amazing. Near record low numbers. Yes, there have been some events, but nothing like most years.
Let’s check out the cut off low late this week. Normally cut-off lows produce a lot of clouds, cool temperatures, showers, and some thunderstorms. Cold air aloft can lead to hail storms. I will keep an eye on where this tracks.
This is the 500 mb wind maps for Friday into Friday night. Check out that low! It does appear it will track to our south. That puts us on the northern edge of the system.
Images from wright-weather.com
This is the Friday noon image (below)
And finally, Friday night
Let’s look at the 500 mb maps vort map. This is giving me an idea where lift will be located…where precipitation might break out. This thing is wound up.
The red colors (wound up area) is uplift…rising air. Vorticity. Downstream from the bigger numbers (red colors) is where you would expect precipitation to develop.
Friday night around 11 pm to Saturday 1 am. We should have some precipitation in the area based on these maps.
If we move down to the surface map you can see an area of low pressure to our south (the L over northern Mississippi). The colors on this map represent precipitation. The blue and green would be moderate rain and storms. If this is correct then Thursday and Friday will have showers and thunderstorms dotting our region.
Still several days away…I will keep an eye on the track and intensity.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
