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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today. Another chance Sunday night into Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring thunderstorm chances Sunday night into the middle of next week. Some of those could be strong and perhaps severe. The SPC has outlined our region for severe weather Tuesday. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. Some ponding of water is possible today in fields and ditches.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? POSSIBLE. Winds will approach 40 mph today and Friday. A wind advisory may be necessary.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Thursday through Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Friday: 5. Medium risk.
Friday night: 5. Medium risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue through the day today, exiting the region by this evening. Northwesterly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible today. Lingering breezy winds continue Friday ahead of very warm and dry weather for the weekend. RHs below 30% are possible in the Ozark Foothills Friday. Active weather returns next week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Thursday Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Rain ending with time from west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 20 to 40 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will end west to east. Some clearing overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Ending.
Timing of the precipitation: Ending
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:05 AM
Moonset: 11:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 35 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:28 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:50 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:41 AM
Moonset: 12:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:41 AM
Moonset: 1:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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- Thunderstorms will come to an end today. Drier weather tonight into Sunday morning.
- Gusty wind today into Friday. Windy again by Monday and Tuesday.
- Monitoring the risk of thunderstorms Sunday night into the middle of next week.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Well, much of the region has received a decent rain event, but totals do vary greatly. A widespread one to two inches of rain has fallen across the region with pockets of greater than two inches. Some locations have topped three inches!
Intermingled in those totals, are patchy areas with less than an inch. I will have some rainfall maps later today. They usually come out around 9 am. I can then see the three day totals.
Widespread rain will continue this morning. Some thunderstorms, as well. It will taper west to east as we move through the day.
Some clearing will even be possible this afternoon across our western counties in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. We will have to monitor satellite to see just how far east that clearing line will push.
No severe weather anticipated today or tonight. That is good news.
The region will dry out this afternoon and tonight.
It will be breezy today into Friday. Occasional wind gusts above 40 mph will be possible. This is because of the area of low pressure with a tight pressure gradient. Rapidly rising and falling precipitation causes strong wind gusts.
There is a wind advisory for the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
Dry conditions Friday through Sunday afternoon.
Our weather eyes will then turn towards thunderstorm chances Sunday night into the middle of next week. Some of those thunderstorms could be intense with the risk of severe weather increasing.
Peak chances will likely arrive Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. As a matter of fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday.
You can see that on this map. A bit early to worry too much, but it is something that I am monitoring.
Gusty winds will continue into the weekend and then into next week. Strong south southwesterly winds. Monitor updates over the coming days concerning any threat of severe weather next week. We have several days to monitor.
Let’s look at some long range outlooks from the long range team.
April 23rd through May 6th
May Temperature Outlook
May Precipitation Outlook
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
August Temperature Outlook
June, July, and August Preliminary Temperature Outlook
June, July, and August Preliminary Precipitation Outlook
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the FVS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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