This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
April 10, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A 60% for showers. Thunderstorms possible. Some areas may remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 58 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible. Monitor radars and have alternative plans.
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April 11, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Decreasing clouds from northwest to southeast. A morning shower possible over southeast MO and southwest IL, otherwise rain should have come to an end in those areas. Rain chances will linger for southeast Illinois into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
Winds: Winds becoming north and northwest early in the day at speeds of 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways. Possibly lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous for a brief period of time.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:26 p.m.
April 11, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 50 IL ~ 46 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 50 TN ~ 48 to 50
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some late night fog.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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April 12, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny with a few passing clouds. Mild. Nice day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: East winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:22 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:27 p.m.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 58 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: East and southeast winds at 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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April 13, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Perhaps an isolated shower or storm over the western portions of southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Southeast winds becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? For most of the area, none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verifysible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:28 p.m.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 14, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 6:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:29 p.m.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday night: Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms could be on the heavy side with small hail and gusty winds. The risk for severe weather is less than 10%.
Tuesday: A few thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday into Friday: Some storms area possible. It is too soon to know if severe weather is a concern.
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Your day by day analysis
Monday night into Tuesday night:
A slow moving cold front will deliver shower and thunderstorm chances into Tuesday morning. Southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois will likely have some sun on Tuesday with rain chances ending early. Rain chances may linger over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
Rainfall totals will vary. Heavier totals will occur where thunderstorms develop or train. Generally, I am anticipating 0.25″ to 0.50″ of rain. A few spots will probably top a half an inch.
Let’s take a look at three different rainfall forecasts.
These maps won’t be exact. Don’t take specifics from them. Take generalities.
You can see heavier bands of rain on these maps. That is caused by thunderstorms.
This first one is the high resolution 3K NAM guidance
This next image is the lower resolution NAM
Here is the NOAA forecast
Organized severe weather is unlikely. CAPE values (measure of energy) will remain on the low side. Wind fields will be strong, but without instability it won’t be able to produce much in the way of severe weather. A couple of storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Lightning is always a concern for outdoor events. The risk for severe weather is less than 10%. Severe weather is defined as quarter size+ hail or 60 mph+ winds.
The frontal boundary responsible for the showers and storms will push out of the region by Tuesday night. Any remaining showers will come to an end.
Here is the 3K NAM model guidance future-cast radar. What radar might look like Monday night into Tuesday.
This is one model’s opinion and won’t be exact, but you get the general idea.
Wednesday into Wednesday night should remain dry.
Another system pushes towards our region on Thursday with at least some risk for a shower or thunderstorm. Confidence on the Thursday through Sunday time-frame is rather low. A slow moving frontal boundary may stall over our region. If that happens then there will be daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures from now through the weekend should remain mild.
Here is the GFS model’s take on the late week rain chances. The forecast is muddled because I am not sure if the front stalls over our region. This part of the forecast will need to be fine tuned. I know several of you have activities planned for this coming weeks. I will keep an eye on the trends in guidance.
This first map is for Thursday evening. Green represents showers.
This next image is for Friday afternoon
This next image is for Friday night
This next image is for Sunday evening
This next image is for Tuesday morning
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
