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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a broad-brush of the region. See my detailed hand-typed forecast further down.
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Friday through Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Saturday night. Sunday. Sunday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Sunday afternoon and night. A few storms could become severe. See the live severe weather blog. Link https://wtalk.co/FE4YZE4B
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Sunday afternoon and night will need to be monitored.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? Monitor. Frost is possible Friday night (tonight). Another chance Monday and Tuesday night.
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April 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest wind at 7 to 14 mph. Wind gusts above 30 mph, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear the first half of the night. Some clouds late. Frost is likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 36° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Wind diminishing to below 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:48 PM
Moonset: 8:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Increasing clouds west to east. Wide scattered afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South increasing to 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. Showers developing. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B (esp as we move later into the night).
Moonrise: 11:57 PM
Moonset: 9:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
The live severe weather blog has been activated. Link https://wtalk.co/FE4YZE4B
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy. Breezy. Periods of showers and thunderstorms. There WILL be some dry time. A few storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain is likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Flooding. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:28 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Ending late. Turning colder. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 36°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Ending west to east overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 11:58 PM
Moonset: 9:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Morning clouds. Decreasing clouds. Cooler. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 15 to 45 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Isolated, at best.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Frost is possible if clouds clear and winds subside. Frost is more likely Tuesday and Wednesday night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest 10 to 20 mph before midnight. Wind diminishing after midnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 36°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps frost. A better chance of frost will occur Tuesday and Wednesday night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:01 AM
Moonset: 10:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Tuesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of light rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Clearing. Cold. Frost and freeze possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost. Monitor the chance of freeze conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:57 AM
Moonset: 11:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: AM frost is possible. Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:31 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Frost possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost. Monitor the chance of freeze conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:45 AM
Moonset: 12:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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April 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Morning frost is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 60° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Monitor. A front will be approaching from the west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Monitor.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:26 AM
Moonset: 1:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning crescent.
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April 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:02 AM
Moonset: 2:37 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning crescent.
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April 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:33 AM
Moonset: 3:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning crescent
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April 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 3% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 5:00 AM
Moonset: 4:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning crescent.
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April 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 7:35 PM
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Monday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 5:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Frost chances tonight. Frost/freeze chances Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night.
- Some fields are wet from thunderstorms and recent rain.
- Heavy rain likely on Sunday. Thunderstorms, as well.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Click on the graphics to enlarge them.
N/A today because it is a holiday
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 14th. Sunday afternoon and night could deliver some severe weather. Monitor updates. The live blog is active.
The live severe weather blog has been activated. Link https://wtalk.co/FE4YZE4B
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Monitor updates concerning the chance of severe weather on Thursday afternoon and night. Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Frost chances tonight and again Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night.
- Thunderstorm chances increase Saturday night into Sunday night.
- Locally heavy rain Sunday.
- Monitor the chance of severe weather Sunday afternoon and night
- The live severe weather blog has been activated. Link https://wtalk.co/FE4YZE4B
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The main topic will be frost and thunderstorm chances.
It was a cold morning. Some reporting stations dipped into the lower 30s! Many areas dipped into the 34 to 38-degree range. Brrr. This is why I have been telling people not to plant flowers, yet. That advice will continue into next week when frost and/or freeze conditions are likely.
Winds last night helped prevent frost. The wind keeps frost from forming. Perfect frost conditions will always include a calm wind.
We will have to deal with windy conditions today, as well. Some of the gusts could again hit 40 mph, esp this afternoon.
The good news is that we will have plenty of sunshine today and tomorrow! We can handle that. The sun will feel nice (even though it will be cool outside).
We will have cold temperatures again tonight. Frost is possible. Lows will dip into the 30s. Winds will diminish overnight. Thus, there is a chance of frost.
A frost advisory has been issued for a portion of the area. Other areas, should monitor. Frost is possible, as well. It is most likely, however, in the blue zone.
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Saturday will be nice. A little warmer. Some increase in clouds as we move through the day. A few showers may develop during the afternoon hours.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday night into Sunday night.
It appears the system will track far enough north that heavy rain will become a concern on Sunday/Sunday night. The heaviest rain will fall across western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Some locations could top two inches of rain.
This will cause some flooding of poor drainage areas. Some roads may flood. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
I am monitoring the risk of severe weather.
The live severe weather blog has been activated. Link https://wtalk.co/FE4YZE4B
A severe weather outbreak is likely across the southern United States. Tornadoes, some strong to violent, will be possible. This is a dangerous set-up for the Southland. Let’s hope it underperforms.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a multi-day event. Tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday.
Saturday’s outlook for severe storms. We are in the light green zone. That simply means that lightning is possible.
Click the images to enlarge them.
Sunday outlook (below)
And Monday
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The WPC has also outlined a portion of our region for excessive rainfall. What does that mean? It simply means locally heavy rain is in the forecast.
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I continue to monitor the risk of severe weather in our local area. The risk arrive on Sunday afternoon and night.
Wind fields will be very strong with this particular system. What will be lacking, locally, will be instability and higher dew points.
It would not take much in the way of CAPE (think of CAPE as energy for storms to tap into) to cause problems. Higher CAPE values would certainly equal a higher risk of tornadoes and damaging wind.
There will be an outbreak south of our local area. Whether that pushes northward is still a question.
You will want to monitor updates on Sunday. I will go ahead and start the live severe weather blog. It is a holiday weekend.
SREF tornado ingredients animation takes us through tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday. You can see the bullseye over the southlands on Sunday.
That is where the tornado risk will be highest. Long-tracked tornadoes can’t be ruled out. If you have friends in the risk zone, then let them know.
When forecasting severe thunderstorms, I like to look for dew points in the 58 to 60+ range. Higher dew points would mean more fuel for thunderstorms to tap into.
Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. More moisture = more fuel for storms.
The higher dew points will likely remain in Tennessee and perhaps into Kentucky. This will need to be monitored.
If the system tracks further north and west then those higher dew points will push further into our local area.\
The NAM models dew point forecast for Sunday afternoon/evening.
The GFS models dew point forecast for Sunday afternoon/evening.
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CAPE is energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Ingredients for CAPE include temperature and dew point. Sunny days typically have higher CAPE values. That is because temperatures tend to be higher.
CAPE, with this event, is marginal. With that said, it won’t take much in the way of CAPE to cause issues. Why? Because upper level winds will be strong (wind shear). That can offset low CAPE numbers. Wind shear is an ingredient in severe weather forecasting. Shear means the wind turns with height and increases in speed with height.
EHI (spin in the atmosphere) will be higher to our south and east. It will be close. We need to monitor this.
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Rain totals will range from 0.80″ over our northwest counties up to two inches around Hopkinsville.
Thunderstorms, anywhere in the region, can always enhance rain totals. Keep that in mind, as always.
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Check out this storm. It winds up as it pulls through our region. Deepens over the Ohio Valley. It eventually moves into Canada.
That blue zone is heavy snow. Blizzard conditions? That is certainly possible across a portion of the storm track.
Those black lines are isobars. Equal lines of pressure. TIGHT isobars equal high wind. These are tightly packed isobars.
We will have strong and gusty wind on Sunday and Monday. Gusts above 40 mph will likely occur.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.40″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 10th through April 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.40″
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This outlook covers April 17th through April 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers April 24th through May 7th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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April temperature departures forecast
April precipitation departures
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May temperature departures
May precipitation departures
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March through May
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Preliminary Summer Forecast
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June through August preliminary temperature outlook
June through August preliminary precipitation outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
