April 10, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

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Today: No.
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Tomorrow: Yes. Strong gradient winds will top 45 mph. These winds will be because of the deep area of low pressure passing to our west/northwest. Some storms could be intense Thursday night. Monitor updates. I will be sending out app and text messages.

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Today through Friday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Yes. Some storms could become intense Thursday night. Damaging wind is the main concern.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Saturday through Tuesday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday night into Sunday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Most likely no. I am monitoring Saturday night into Sunday night. For now, it appears the risk will remain to our south and southeast.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. I will be monitoring Saturday night into Sunday night for locally heavy rain. Monitor updates

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 10, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Increasing high clouds. Warm. Becoming windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° SE MO 76° to 82° South IL 75° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 75° to 80° NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 during the morning. South at 15 to 30 mph during the afternoon. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 High
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Windy. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:26 PM
Moonrise: 10:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

April 11, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Strong and gusty gradient winds. Warm. A mix of sun and clouds. Increasing clouds through the day. A slight chance of a thunderstorm after 3 PM over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 80° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South at 25 to 45 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 30% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong gradient winds could cause damage.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: A band of showers and thunderstorms will be pushing across the region. Some storms could be intense with high winds. Clearing west to east late. Colder. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 48° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 15 to 35 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% Southern IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80% Western KY 70% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous,
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong gradient winds. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
Sunset: 7:26 PM
Moonrise: 10:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:54 AM

April 12, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Any morning clouds will push off to the east. Mostly sunny. Breezy. Cooler.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:27 PM
Moonrise: 11:55 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
Moonset: 1:53 AM

Saturday: Increasing clouds. A chance for mainly afternoon shower. A few showers may arrive before noon. The system is speeding up just a tad. Shower chances increasing southwest and south towards the north and northeast. Rain will eventually overspread the entire region as we move into Saturday afternoon and night. Highs in the lower to middle 60’s. Lows in the middle 40’s. East and northeast at 7 to 14 during the day and increasing to 10 to 20 and gusty at night.

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Sunday: Rain likely in the morning. A rumble of thunder possible. Turning much colder Sunday night. Windy. Highs in the 56 to 62-degree range. Lows in the middle to upper 30’s. West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.

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Monday: Mostly sunny. Some passing clouds. Highs in the middle to upper 60’s. Lows in the middle to upper 40’s. South and southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Thunderstorms are likely to develop Thursday night. Thunderstorms could become intense with damaging wind gusts. Low-end tornado risk. Monitor updates.

Friday through Tuesday: Lightning is possible Saturday night and Sunday. We may remain on the cool side of that system. If that happens then the risk of lightning will be reduced. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely. If the low were to track further west then severe weather would be possible in our local area. Monitor updates.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Warm today! Spring temperatures. Some locations will hit 80 degrees.
Dry today into Thursday morning.
High winds are likely as we move into tomorrow. Gradient winds could top 50 mph.
A line of thunderstorms will form Thursday night across our region. It will then move east/northeast at 55+ mph.
Cooler Friday into the weekend.
Widespread rain spreads back into the region Saturday afternoon and night. Rain continues into Sunday morning and then tapers off as we move through the day.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I increased wind speeds on Thursday.

I lowered weekend temperatures.

I increased rain chances earlier on Saturday.

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

No.

Tomorrow, however, will deliver strong and gusty winds. Severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and night.

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Forecast discussion.

Wasn’t Tuesday a great day? Warm and sunny. I enjoyed it!

We have a lot of weather to talk about.

Today into Thursday morning:

A warm day is on tap for the region Another great day to be outdoors. Highs today will rise into the upper 70’s over much of the region. Some of you will hit 80 degrees. We will start to notice clouds pushing in from the west as the blizzard develops well to our northwest. Same system.

Winds will pick up this afternoon and tonight. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 25+ mph. This will be in response to a deep/historic low-pressure center in the Central United States.

Winds on Thursday will be even higher. Gradient wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph are likely. Some places may top 50 mph gusts.

Here is the NAM wind gust animation map. This won’t be exact, of course. It just gives you an idea of what the guidance is showing as this deep area of low pressure tightens the pressure gradient over our local area.

This is the blizzard that you are hearing about on the local news and Weather Channel. Thankfully, we won’t be on the cold side of this system. They can keep their snow.

You can find the blizzard on this map. These are 7-day temperature anomaly readings. WELL below normal in the green to purple zone. That is where snow will most likely fall over the coming 48 hours.

We will, however, be in the warm sector.

Here is the warm sector depicted on the GFS model guidance for Thursday afternoon and evening. You can see all the warm air being pulled northward as the deep low moves through Kansas and then northeastward.

Timestamp upper left.

Very strong upper-level jet stream winds will develop over the region later tonight into Thursday night.

This will help pull moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. How much moisture is the question?

Higher dew points would mean increased chances of severe thunderstorms.

Dew point is a measure of moisture. Dew points of 58 degrees and above are typically necessary for severe thunderstorm develop. Think of dew points as fuel.

Dew points will at least reach into the upper 50’s. New data indicates that we may have dew points in the lower 60’s.

These dew points are fuel for thunderstorms.

Here is the dew point forecast animation from the NAM model guidance.

That tongue of blue are the higher dew points.

Timestamp upper left.

If we do have dew points in the 60’s then severe thunderstorms will likely develop along the incoming cold front.

The cold front will push west to each across the region as we move into Thursday afternoon and night.

Trends in the guidance have been to slow the system down a bit. It may end up that most of the activity occurs during the evening and overnight hours. I am monitoring this part of the forecast (the timing).

The cold front will provide lift. Lift is another ingredient when considering severe weather.

We have fuel. We have lift. We have strong wind shear. All necessary ingredients for severe thunderstorm development.

This map shows lift. The system peaks over eastern Illinois, Indiana, down into Kentucky. You can see those bright colors in a stripe north to south.

This is when the severe weather risk should be highest.

It is possible that parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois have very little. For that matter, extreme western Kentucky isn’t a certainty, either.

It will come down to how early does the line of storms take shape. A few hours difference could mean big differences in our local forecast.

Monitor updates.

The time-frame of most concern for thunderstorm activity?

I will be monitoring the 5 PM to 12 AM time-frame.

There are some questions on exactly where the line will form. It will be important to monitor updates tomorrow.

I am expecting a squall line/line of thunderstorms to form across our region by late afternoon and early evening. The line will intensify as it moves eastward.

Damaging winds are possible with the thunderstorms. Winds aloft will be very strong. Thunderstorms will likely tap into these strong upper-level wind fields.

I can’t rule out isolated tornadoes in the Ohio Valley. Perhaps that risk will be higher in Indiana. Monitor updates. Locally heavy rain and lightning are also possible. A few hail reports can’t be ruled out.

The system will quickly move out of our region by late Thursday night.

Friday into Saturday morning will be dry and cooler. It appears we should avoid frost Friday night/Saturday morning.

Yet another storms system will arrive by Saturday and Sunday. Widespread rain will push back into our region from Arkansas and Tennessee. Some of the rain could be locally heavy.

Rain totals of 0.80″ to 1.6″ will be possible. Locally higher.

The low should track over us or to our east/southeast. If that happens then the risk of severe weather will remain low.

The severe weather risk will increase if the low tracks further west. For now, I have the low staying far enough east to keep the severe risk low. Monitor updates. Systems over the last two months have been a bit chaotic. Some adjustments are possible.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

The main concern continues to be another cold front on Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Then, another system Saturday into Sunday (it has sped up a bit).

Let me show you a few model future-cast radar animations.

This is the GFS model guidance animation. This is the Thursday afternoon and night event. This is a strong cold front. Wind shear will be strong. Instability may be lacking. The wind shear could make up the difference. Strong storms are possible. Let’s keep an eye on it.

Timestamp upper left.

Click to enlarge.

Here is the NAM model guidance.

Notice both the GFS and the NAM quickly develop a line of thunderstorms over our local area. Not everyone, however, receives rain. It is possible that portions of southeast Missouri remain dry as the front passes eastward. This will need to be monitored.

This will be a narrow band of showers and storms that cross portions of the region.

Damaging wind is the main concern.

Timestamp upper left.

This next one is the SPC WRF model. A high-resolution model that typically does quite well with thunderstorm events.

All the models show the same thing. A thin line of showers and thunderstorms forming when the front hits the higher dew point numbers.

The system has slowed some. It now looks like a late afternoon into Thursday night event.

Timestamp upper left.

And here is the upcoming weekend event on the GFS.

This system moves up from the Gulf of Mexico. That means it could have quite a bit of moisture with it.

This event is still several days away. I will be monitoring trends in guidance. Moderate rain is possible if the low tracks over our region.

Severe weather appears unlikely with it.

This system has sped up. We could have some showers as early as Saturday morning. Showers are more likely, however, as we move through Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, and Sunday morning.

The rain will taper SW to NE on Sunday. Clouds will help keep temperatures cooler both Saturday and Sunday.

Timestamp upper left.

Dates to monitor for precipitation.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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WeatherBrains Episode 690

Tonight’s WeatherBrains features the on-air weather team at WCBI-TV in Columbus, MS. Joining us are meteorologists Keith Gibson, Jacob Dickey, Jacob Riley and Alex Puckett. Gentleman, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: