We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. We have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at our Park Avenue location and 20 years at our Southside location. We have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows us to provide our customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with our carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Saturday night – Most areas will remain above freezing. Middle to upper 30s.
Sunday night – No concerns for frost
Monday night -No concerns for frost
Tuesday night – Monitor updates
Wednesday night – Monitor updates
Thursday night – Monitor updates
Saturday Night – Some clouds towards morning. Chilly. Not as cold as Friday night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Some clouds. Warmer. Windy, at times. A good chance for a period of showers and thunderstorms. A couple of storms could produce heavy downpours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. Expect some 70s in some spots.
Winds: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts to 35-40 mph in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to a period of widespread precipitation.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but a few showers are going to occur
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A few storms could produce hail in Missouri. Overall severe risk if small for our local area.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and perhaps some lightning. Gusty winds.
Sunday Night – Mostly cloudy. An increasing chance for showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm towards morning. More likely through the day on Monday.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before midnight and then 60% after midnight
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to becoming widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A few storms could produce hail in Missouri. Severe weather risk is small.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Monday – Cloudy. Widespread showers. Maybe a rumble of thunder. Some heavy downpours possible. Rain will spread from west/north towards the south and east. Temperatures may fall during the afternoon hours over the northern half of southeast Missouri into northwest Kentucky. This, as a cold front moves southward.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. Temperatures falling in the afternoon over the northern half of the region.
Winds: Southerly winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty winds at times ahead of our next system. Winds becoming more west late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Monday Night – Mostly cloudy. Showers. A rumble of thunder possible early.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range
Winds: Winds becoming northwest and north at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% southern counties and 40% northern counties. North being from Farmington, MO towards Carmi, IL. Better chances for rain the further south you travel in the reigon.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread (especially southern half of the region)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers and storms are possible Monday and Monday night. Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Mainly early in the day.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Rain should come to an end by Tuesday morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Likely none.
Tuesday Night – Clearing and cold. Frost possible
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 58 to 64 degrees.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday Night – Clearing and cool. Will monitor temperatures for frost conditions.
Temperatures: Lows from 36 to 44 degrees.
Winds: Winds northeast at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost
Thursday – Mostly sunny and mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures 64-68 degrees
Winds: Northeast winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40s
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Mostly sunny. Warmer. Spring.
Temperatures: High temperatures 68-72 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wind advisory from 9 am Sunday until 9 pm Sunday. Winds of 35-50 mph possible. Highest winds will be during the afternoon hours.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warmer on Sunday!
- A period of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday night.
- Widespread showers and some thunder on Monday
Well, we made it through yet another freeze. The frequency of the cold intrusions, over the last few weeks, has been impressive. It is not unusual to have a cold snap in April. It is unusual to have cold snap after cold snap after cold snap. I suppose it could be worse. Some areas to our northeast are measuring snow.
Our next weather system is already approaching from the west and southwest. Our winds will turn out of the south and temperatures will warm up on Sunday. Expect widespread 60s over the region.
Showers are possible on Sunday. Thunderstorms are also now in the forecast. Rain chances have been increased for Sunday. The risk for severe weather locally is small. Can’t rule out a few reports of hail in Missouri.
Future-cast radar for 7 am on Sunday morning
Another round of rain will arrive on Sunday night and especially on Monday. Widespread showers and perhaps thunderstorms are going to occur on Monday and Monday night. Locally heavy downpours are possible. It does appear that most locations will pick up 0.50″-1.00″ of rain. Some spots should top one inch.
Also, the guidance continues to show some spots receiving less than 0.50″. It would not surprise me to see a band of heavier totals across the northern parts of the region. Then parts of southeast Missouri into far southern Illinois and western Kentucky receiving lesser amounts. The question is placement of the heavier band vs the lighter totals. Seems to always be the case in our region. Some receive more. Some receive less.
Let me show you the latest WPC rainfall totals. The first image is through 1 am on Monday morning. The second image is total rainfall for Sunday through Tuesday. Notice the bands.
Rain showers are still possible on Tuesday. But, the precipitation should be coming to an end as the day wears on. This should leave us with another cold shot on Tuesday night into Thursday. I can’t rule out frost conditions on Wednesday and Thursday morning. Monitor updates if you have concerns.
Let’s look at some weather maps.
Let’s compare the NAM vs the GFS guidance for rainfall totals. The common theme in all of the data is that there could be a band of heavier rain across some of our counties. The placement of that band will need to be monitored. We don’t need more rain. But, more rain is on the way. Some locations will top one inch.
Here is the GFS rainfall total forecast
Here is the NAM rainfall total forecast. You can see the NAM has less rain over parts of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee. The GFS is heavier.
Here is the 1 pm weather map for Sunday. You can see some light showers in our region. Can’t rule out showers on Sunday. The bigger rain event arrives on Monday.
Here is the 7 pm Sunday evening map. Scattered showers possible in our region. Green represents showers.
Here is the 1 am map for Monday morning. You can see the coverage of the rain increasing.
Here is the 1 pm map for Monday afternoon. Notice the dark green band. That is the heavier rain band that I mentioned earlier. We could see a band of heavier rain form on the north side of this system.
Moving ahead to 7 pm Monday evening. Quite a bit of rain in our region. The low is passing to our south. If this were winter then we would be talking about heavy snow.
Here is the 1 am weather map for Tuesday morning. Rain continues in our local area. This is the GFS. It holds rain in the region a bit longer than other data.
Here is the 7 am Tuesday morning map. Rain has mostly ended in our region. Maybe a few light showers remaining.
GFS low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning. I am sure these numbers will change between now and then. It has a cold bias. But, thirties are a good bet Wednesday morning.
I want to let everyone know the following:
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Sunday – A few storms possible on Sunday. Not anticipating severe weather. There could be a few reports of hail on Sunday/Sunday night.
Monday – Thunderstorms are possible. Not anticipating severe weather.
Tuesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
.
.
.
Added thunderstorms to Sunday’s forecast. Also added mention of hail in Missouri.
.
Sunday night – No concerns
Monday night – No concerns
Tuesday night – Monitor updates
Wednesday night – Monitor updates
Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday and Monday. Lightning is the main concern. Small risk for severe weather.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A period of showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday. The bulk of the rain will fall on Monday and Monday night. Right now it appears a widespread 0.50″-1.00″ of rain will be possible. And, some spots should top one inch. Especially true if banding occurs. Which, it appears it will.
.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
.
.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
