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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Friday – Some morning clouds. Much cooler. Highs in the 60’s with northwest winds at 10-20 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds and cooler. Temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Northwest winds at 10 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Sunny and cooler. Highs in the 60’s. Northwest winds at 10 mph.
Friday night – Mostly clear and cool. Lows in the 40’s. Northwest winds at 10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Saturday – A few clouds. Cool. Highs in the 60’s with east winds at 10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Saturday night – Just a few clouds. Cool. Lows in the 50’s. East/southeast winds at 10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunday – Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the 70’s. Small chance for a shower late in the day over western counties. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
School Bus Stop Forecast
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A calm day! Cooler!
2. Dry for Saturday
3. Rain chances increase Sunday night into next week
It was a long night of dealing with severe weather.
Today and Saturday will bring calm and cooler weather. We are now behind the cold front and the system that caused so many problems in the region over the past week.
Another system approaches our region by Sunday night. That means an increasing chance for showers and perhaps thunderstorms on Sunday night and Monday. Right now the severe weather risk appears low. But, I will monitor, as always.
See the extended discussion for the rest of the week.
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No major concerns today through Sunday morning.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Rivers will be on the rise over the coming days. Heavy rains will cause additional rises. We will also have to monitor rainfall totals next week.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO (after the storms move out early Friday morning)
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
An unsettled pattern is setting up for the week ahead. It won’t rain all the time, but we are going to have on and off rain chances. Some timing differences on the models from day to day on the coverage of the precipitation. Keep that in mind.
Let’s just take a quick glance at the GFS model. Green would be rain.
This first image is for Monday morning. Some showers and perhaps rumbles of thunder in the area.
Moving ahead to Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Maybe some showers? A bit more uncertain during this time frame.
Thursday morning and Thursday night – cold front advances towards our area. Perhaps some heavy showers and storms.
Then we move ahead to Saturday. Basically an unsettled week ahead of us with on and off rain chances.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
