.
WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $4000.00. Your $5 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.
The $5 will allow you to register up to seven phones!
For $5 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.
Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone. These are hand typed messages from me to you. During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
.
- Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
- Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone. When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
- AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
- Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
- Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
- Long-range weather videos
- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
Monthly outlooks. - Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
.
Would you like to subscribe? Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
.
.
.
Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.
-
- Go to today’s forecast
- Go to the severe weather outlook
- Go to the weather forecast discussion
- Go to the model future-cast radars
- Go to videos
- Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature and precipitation graphics
- Go to Weatherbrains
- View some of our charity work. Your subscription dollars help support these causes.
Do you have questions or suggestions? If so, please email me. Beaudodson@usawx.com
.
-
-
- Dry today into Wednesday.
- Not as cold tonight.
- Rain chances increase by Wednesday night into Thursday night.
- Watching another system that could bring rain by Saturday night or Sunday.
-
.
Today: No.
.
Tomorrow: No.
.
Confidence rating explained.
-
-
- High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
- Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
- Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.
-
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Today through Wednesday night.
-
-
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Monitoring Wednesday night for lightning.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
-
.
Thursday through Sunday
-
-
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible on Thursday and perhaps again late in the weekend.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Storms are possible late on Thursday and again by late in the weekend. Too soon to know if severe weather is a concern.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
-
.
* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
.
Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
.
April 1, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 54° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
.
Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly. Frost likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 33° to 34° South IL 32° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: South at 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:17 PM
Moonrise: 5:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:57 PM
.
.
April 2, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Morning frost. Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Milder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
.
Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:18 PM
Moonrise: 5:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:54 PM
.
.
April 3, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny AM. Some increase in clouds during the afternoon. Warm. Nice day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 68° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South winds at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
.
Wednesday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of mainly late night scattered showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will likely be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Lesser chances as you continue to move east.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 50° South IL 46° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. The greatest coverage will likely be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunset: 7:19 PM
Moonrise: 6:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:51 PM
.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely both Thursday and Thursday night. Highs in the lower to middle 60’s. Lows in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s. South to west wind at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the middle 60’s. Lows in the lower to middle 40’s. Northwest wind at 7 to 14 mph.
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Lows in the lower 50’s. East wind at 7 to 14 mph.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
.
Graphic-cast
.Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Tennessee
.
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
.
Today and tomorrow: No severe weather.
Wednesday through Saturday: A few storms are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Lightning is the current concern. I will monitor the severe weather risk.
.
.
Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
.
Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
.
.
.
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
- A warming trend.
- Rain chances ramp up again by Wednesday night/Thursday.
- Monitoring another chance of rain by late in the weekend.
.
Current conditions.
.
Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
No major changes.
.
Does the forecast require action?
No.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
.
Forecast discussion.
Here is the preliminary growing season outlook from the BAMwx team.
2019 Preliminary Growing/Cooling Season Outlook.
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
.
We are waking up to cold temperatures. A widespread freeze occurred Sunday night. Many areas dipped into the 20’s.
The good news is that we will have a slow warming trend into the week. We may even touch 70 before the week is over! I think we can handle that news.
Let’s look at the temperature anomaly map for Monday morning. How many degrees above or below normal are temperatures?
Normal lows are in the lower 40’s. We are quite a bit colder than that.
.
The good news is that temperatures will be int he 60’s Tuesday through at least Saturday.
Here is the 1 PM Wednesday temperature anomaly map. We are going above normal as we move through the week. Great news for those who have been waiting on warmer weather. Slowly but surely we are climbing up the temperature ladder.
Normal highs are around 64 degrees.
.
The bad news is that more rain is on the way.
A storm system will quickly move across the Central United States Tuesday night and Wednesday. That will bring increasing clouds to our area by Wednesday afternoon.
Rain may arrive as early as Wednesday night across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Then, the rain will spread eastward as we move into Thursday morning.
Rain totals from this event are likely to range from 0.40″ to 0.60″.
I am monitoring the chance of thunderstorms. For now, it appears the severe weather risk is low. As always, monitor updates. Sometimes these severe weather events can be tricky to forecast.
The GFS model shows most of the CAPE staying to our west and southwest. The EC model brings CAPE into at least portions of the area.
What is CAPE? CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. The higher the CAPE numbers the greater chances that some storms will be strong (assuming other ingredients come together).
.
Here is the GFS CAPE forecast for Thursday.
.
Here is the EC CAPE forecast for Thursday.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Our next rain maker is already showing up in the short-range guidance.
You can expect rain showers to increase by Wednesday night and linger into at least Thursday afternoon. There is a chance that rain will last into Thursday night.
Some thunderstorms are possible with this system, as well.
.
Here is the NAM model
The NAM does not go out quite far enough to capture the entire event. A few showers remain in western KY at the end of its run.
.
Here is the GFS future-cast radar. Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge.
.
Yet another system may bring rain back to the region late in the weekend.
Here is how the GFS future-cast radar depicts that rain event.
.
.
These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
These are bonus videos.
I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
The Ohio Valley video
.
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
.
.
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
.
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
.
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
.
Precipitation outlook
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
.
Preliminary summer outlook
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
.
Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.
.
Not receiving app/text messages?
- Make sure you have the correct app/text options turned on. Do that under the personal notification settings tab at www.weathertalk.com. Red is off. Green is on.
- USE THE APP. Verizon and ATT have been throttling text messages. The app receives the same messages instantly. Texts can take longer. Please, use the app. It is under Beau Dodson Weather in the app stores.
Our Guest WeatherBrain for this week is Dina Knightly, formerly an employee of The Weather Channel who now works for IBM as a senior meteorologist. She was a former weather producer on The Weather Channel’s Wake Up With Al, Weather Center Live and Weekend Recharge. She has a bachelors degree in Atmospheric Science from The Ohio State University where she earned a private pilots license. Before her weather career, she had over seven years with Continental Airlines as a customer service agent and operations specialist.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Continued discussions about the dangers of manufactured homes in tornado situations
- The problems of long-range forecasts
- What will the weather enterprise look like in 10 years?
- Alabama hailers on 3/25/19
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
.
.
.
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson
.
.
Click here to go to the top of the page
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects? Not a subscriber? Becoming one at www.weathertalk.com
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
