We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. We have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at our Park Avenue location and 20 years at our Southside location. We have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows us to provide our customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with our carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Friday night – 40% chance for frost for northern half of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois. That would include Cape Girardeau to Carmi, Illinois northward.
South of that line there is a 30% chance for frost.
Saturday night there is a 60% chance for frost over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Saturday night – There is a 40% chance for a freeze over the northern half of southeast Missouri, all of southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.
Winds could be the deciding factor both Saturday and Sunday night as to whether frost occurs. Winds stay up and frost risk decreases.
Sunday night – no frost anticipated.
Monday night – There is a 50% chance for frost area wide.
Tuesday night – Frost is not anticipated
Wednesday night – Not concerned about frost.
Thursday night – Frost is possible.
Thursday Night – Evening clouds. Remaining showers and thunderstorms ending late this evening. Some storms could be intense early in the evening. Then, clearing and cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: West winds at 10 mph. Winds may become northwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% before 9 pm. We will have to see how fast the front exits. Especially true for our eastern counties.
Coverage of precipitation? Ending during the evening. Perhaps some scattered early on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Possible early in the evening (depending on how fast the cold front sweeps through the area)
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Gusty winds and hail possible. Low tornado risk.
Friday – A few clouds and cooler. 10% chance for a light shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 10-20 mph Gusty winds over northern parts of southern Illinois.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Some evening clouds. Clearing late. Cold. Frost possible if winds die down.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: Light winds from the northwest
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? A chance for frost. Frost conditions will be determined by wind speed. If winds stay up then frost risk decreases.
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cool. Windy, at times.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Warmest over southeast Missouri.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 10-25 mph. Winds may gust over 35-40 mph during the afternoon hours. Especially over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear and cold. Frost and/or freeze possible. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s
Winds: West and northwest winds at 10-20 mph early. Diminishing to less than 5 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible. Freeze possible.
Sunday – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range. I went a little low on Sunday highs. Data is mixed on whether we go above 60 degrees.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5 mph. Variable winds in the afternoon. Turning more southerly.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Mostly clear and not as cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly sunny. A small chance for an afternoon/evening shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64 to 68 degree range. Pockets of 70 degrees possible over southeast Missouri.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5 mph. Winds becoming northwest behind the cold front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated late in the day
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday Night – Mostly clear and cold. Frost and or freeze possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 30s.
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost and/or freeze
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. Colder.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 50s
Winds: Light and variable winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Calm weather for a few days
- Frost chances Saturday and Sunday morning. Low confidence.
Thunderstorms rolled through our region on Wednesday afternoon and night. These storms dropped quite a bit of rain over the region. Anywhere from 1-3″ fell over a large chunk of the area. And, some spots topped four inches! We did not need that much rain. We are certainly off to a wet start for the spring season.
Thunderstorms redeveloped on Thursday morning over Arkansas and spread northeast into the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. And, another band of storms formed over Indiana and Illinois sweeping southwest. This second band formed along the cold front.
Calm weather will prevail Friday into Sunday. Cooler, as well. Frost can not be ruled out over our northern counties on Friday night. Perhaps north of Cape Girardeau and then towards Carmi, Illinois. If winds do die down then frost chances increase. South of that line we should avoid the frost. But, monitor updates.
Sunday morning will also be chilly. Some of the data indicates we will drop well into the 30s. If this happens then frost will again be possible. If you have concerns about frost then monitor updates.
Another cold front pushes into the region Monday afternoon and evening. Perhaps some light showers along the front.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
No thunderstorms expected on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday.
.
No major changes.
.
Watching for frost on Saturday and Sunday morning. Wind speed will determine whether frost is a concern for Saturday morning. If winds stay up then frost risk goes down.40% chance for frost Saturday morning
50% chance for frost on Sunday morning
30% chance for a freeze on Sunday morning
Monitor for frost potential Saturday and Sunday morning.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Dry weather Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. No significant precipitation anticipated.
Perhaps a few showers on Monday afternoon or night as another cold front moves through the area.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
