The full blog will return Monday
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July 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm over far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered over our southern counties
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Light north northeast wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:58 PM
Moonset: 1:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:11 PM
Moonset: 2:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:23 PM
Moonset: 2:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:27 PM
Moonset: 3:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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July 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mostly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Variable 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 72° / South IL 66° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:23 PM
Moonset: 5:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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July 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 72° / South IL 66° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:08 PM
Moonset: 6:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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July 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 72° / South IL 66° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:45 PM
Moonset: 7:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through July 26th: Severe weather is unlikely. Monitor updates. Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce wind damage. Widespread or organized severe weather appears unlikely, at this time.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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