Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.

Tuesday night –  Some clouds.  A chance for showers.   Patchy fog possible.  Turning cooler as a cold front approaches the region from the north.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 50’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.  Wind gusting to 15 mph. 
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but some showers possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?  30%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

Wednesday – Patchy morning fog possible.  Partly sunny and turning cooler.  Small chance for showers.  Gusty winds, at times.
Temperatures:  Highs in the lower to middle 70’s.   
Winds:  North/northeast winds at 10-20 mph.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% mainly early
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Wednesday night –  Clearing and cooler.  Pleasant night for the windows to be open.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. 
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph. 
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Thursday – Mostly sunny and cool.  Fall like.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s
Winds:  North/northeast winds at 10-15 mph.  Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Thursday night –  Mostly clear early.  Autumn weather.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Friday – Partly sunny.  Perhaps cloudy over our eastern counties.  Small shower chances.  Pleasant.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. 
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Friday night –  Some clouds.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Saturday – Partly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. 
Winds:  North winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Saturday night –  Some clouds possible.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 40’s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Sunday – Some clouds.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. 
Winds:  North/northeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Some showers Tuesday evening
2.  Much cooler air through Sunday!
3.  Mostly dry through the weekend, as well.
4.  One caveat, a tropical system off the East Coast

RAIN!!!  Many of you have picked up rain over the past 12-18 hours.  Much needed rain, I might add.  This has been great for those having to battle brush fires over the past week.  I know that farmers are in the fields, but we needed to put some moisture into the ground.  Hopefully the farmers would agree.

I was not exactly happy with my forecast on the placement of the heaviest rain axis.  A lot more rain fell to the north and northeast of the line I was thinking.  But, I know they needed rain, as well!  So, I am happy they received a much needed soaking.

The large area of rain shifted north and northeast during the early morning hours on Tuesday.

Here is the radar estimated rainfall.  You can see a healthy rain fell over much of the area.  Scale is on the left.

We will have some rain showers continuing into Tuesday evening and night.  A cold front is making its way through the region.  It will push completely through our area by Wednesday morning.

Here is the weather map by Wednesday morning.  Note the front pushing out of our region.  And, it will take the rain chances with it.

This is a healthy cold front.  Some of the coolest air of the season will park itself over our region starting on Wednesday and lasting into at least Sunday.  The coolest days will likely end up being Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  Although some data keeps Sunday/Monday fairly cool, as well.

How cool?  Well, I suspect many areas won’t get above 70 degrees on those days!  It will feel like fall outside.  Overnight lows will dip into the 40’s.  I think we will avoid 30’s this time around.  Sometimes rural areas can have some cold pockets.  But, for now I will stick with the middle to upper 40’s for lows.

There are a few items I am watching on the national weather map.  One is a tropical depression/storm off the southeast coast.  Some of the model guidance intensifies this system quite a bit.  It may move near or off the East Coast of the United States.  If so, that could deepen the trough over our region.  Trough usually means cooler weather.  This will need to be monitored.

There are some models that attempt to pull clouds and moisture back into our region.

I will keep an eye on the trends.

We need more storm spotters.  If you would be interested in becoming a storm spotter (and you can spot from home, we don’t need people out and about to spot) then check out this Storm Spotter Training Webinar on Thursday, October 1st.  6:30 PM to 9:30 PM.  The National Weather Service Office out of Paducah, Kentucky will be conducting the training.

And, for the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings.  If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule.  Click image for a larger view.

Radars

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Rain will start to taper on Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.  I am expecting dry conditions for Wednesday through Saturday.  There have been some models showing light showers Saturday or Sunday.  I have been keeping the forecast dry, for now.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Wednesday through Saturday.

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Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday:   Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

No major concerns for Wednesday.  Perhaps some gusty northerly winds behind our cold front.  Expect some wind gusts over 20 mph.

Otherwise, no major concerns into the weekend.  Fall weather will be the rule.

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

Regional Radar

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.