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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday night – Patchy fog possible. Mostly clear and present. Nice camping weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: North and northeast at 5 mph. Calm winds at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% in the evening
What impact is expected? Should not be any impacts from the weather
Saturday – Some morning fog. Some increase in clouds, especially the western half of the region. Patchy cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Warm. Summer weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Patchy fog possible. Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild. Not too bad for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Perhaps some morning fog. Hot and humid. Increasing clouds with a 30% chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and a bit more humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s. Questions on high temperatures. If thunderstorms form or there is a cloud shield from any storms on Saturday night to our north then temperatures would be impacted. Keep this in mind.
Winds: Mainly south winds at 5-10 mph. Perhaps gusts to 15 mph in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Heat index values might be quite high on Sunday. Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Sunday night – Some clouds. A 40% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Some gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly cloudy. A 30%-40% chance for thunderstorms. We will have storms in the region, but not everyone will experience rain.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph. Winds becoming west/northwest late. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Scattered storms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Monday night – Some clouds. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars in case there are a few storms.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Scattered storms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Cooler. Less humid. Only a slight chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Below normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny. Perhaps an increase in clouds during the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm weather Friday night into Saturday night.
2. Watching a system towards late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night/Monday.
Friday night into Saturday night will bring calm weather. Temperatures won’t be too bad. This is especially true considering it is August! Expect dry conditions.
Some patchy fog is likely on Saturday morning. Perhaps even some dense fog over the eastern half of the region. We could also see fog on Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Sunday might be the warmest day. Highs will rise into the 90’s if we don’t have cloud cover. Heat index values will be high, as well. Use care, as always.
I am watching a disturbance for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This disturbance will dip into the region from the north. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible as this disturbance moves into the area. Right now it appears precipitation will be scattered in nature.
Here is the GFS model for Monday morning. The purple and pink/blue colors represent rainfall. You can see some precipitation in our region.
Then you can see high pressure over our region on Tuesday into Thursday. This is a cooler high pressure than the one over the southwest United States. You can see the H centered over northern Illinois. This high will influence our weather for much of the new work week.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Cooler next week
A cold front arrives early next week. Although it will be warm on Monday. By Tuesday into at least Thursday we will experience below normal temperatures with drier air. Should feel great.
We will likely have some scattered storms on Monday and perhaps Monday night. Then we dry out behind the front.
Beyond Thursday…we may see southwest flow return with warmer air. But, the data is mixed on this subject. So, let’s keep an eye on it.
Rain chances may again increase on Thursday night and Friday. Another disturbance moving in from the north and northwest.
Here is the GFS for Thursday night and Friday. Some more precipitation showing up. Image is from wright-weather.com
Long way off and plenty of time to monitor.
Another trough late next week will deliver more below normal temperature days.
I am watching the ridge of high pressure to our southwest. We might see an extended period of hot weather towards the third or fourth week of the month. I am predicting a warmer than normal September.
The 16 day GFS temperature forecast does not look too bad. Let’s see how it goes. If the heat ridge shifts back into the region then we will warm back into the 90’s. Click image for a larger view. Image is from weatherbell.com
The rest of August?
Check out these 5 day average temperature maps for August. This is how much above or below normal temperatures might be. The blue indicates below normal temperatures.
My August forecast has been that we would have more below normal temperature days than above normal. So far there have been several above normal temperature days. I need a stretch of below normal. GFS says we will receive just that! As always, we shall see.
One point that has messed up my summer forecast has been overnight lows. They have been warmed than normal. Do you know why? Because of all the rain. Wet ground conditions usually mean warmer overnight lows. This has skewed my forecast for more below normal temperature days in July. We had about 50% of the days below normal. We would have had more. But, overnight lows messed that up. My forecast was for a wet summer. I think we have achieved that!
The models are moving more and more towards my thoughts for August, but will they verify. That is always the question.
Images are from weatherbell.com
This first image is for August 7th through the 12th
This second image is for August 12th through the 17th
And this last image is for August 17th through August 22nd
If those maps are correct then much of August will deliver decent temperatures. We can hope.
And with that we can say
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Saturday will be dry. Saturday night will be dry.
Watching Sunday afternoon into Monday for some more showers and storms. Scattered precipitation totals of 0.25″-0.50″. As always, thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO. Not expecting storms on Saturday or Saturday night.
Saturday and Sunday: RIGHT NOW it appears thunderstorm chances will be nil on Saturday and small on Sunday. But, data is mixed on this subject (especially for Sunday afternoon and night). Monitor updates.
Monday: A chance for a few thunderstorms
Tuesday: Not expecting storms
Wednesday: Not expecting storms
Thursday: Not expecting storms
No major concerns!
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
