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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Thursday night – Flash flood watch. Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain where storms form.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 70’s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds may shift to the southeast at 5 mph late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and heavy downpours. Flash flood risk if storms train over the same counties.
Friday – Morning clouds with a 40%-50% chance for thunderstorms. Afternoon storms likely. If storms form in the afternoon they could be intense. Isolated severe storm possible.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees
Winds: Southeast winds becoming southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% in the morning and 60% in the afternoon
What impact is expected? If storms form then lightning and heavy downpours. A few storms could be severe during the afternoon hours.
Friday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Only a 10%-20% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 70’s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Early in the evening an isolated severe storm is possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning and heavy rain
Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny and hot. Humid.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Perhaps a gust to 15 mph on lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance or less
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning and heavy rain
Saturday night – Mostly clear and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 70’s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny and hot. Humid.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts from 10-15 on lakes on Sunday afternoon
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance or less
What impact is expected? Not expecting problems.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Finally some light at the end of the tunnel. But, another tunnel already showing up.
2. Mostly dry and hot weather for Friday into Sunday. Summer like weather.
3. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Are you ready for a change? Tired of me talking about thunderstorm chances every single day? Well, I have some good news. At least for a couple of days.
Look at these rainfall totals. I zoomed in on Paducah. This is from the last three days. Yes, those are some 10″ totals in Massac County and Livingston County.
We may still have some showers and storms on Friday morning. . By Friday afternoon storms will become widely scattered.
We should see quite a bit of sun and we should heat up into the 90’s on Saturday and Sunday. It will FEEL like a summer weekend. I can already hear the collective cheer going up all around me.
Heat index values Friday into Sunday will be well into the 90’s and even perhaps 100 degrees. It is going to be a little uncomfortable. Especially for those who do not like hot weather.
All good things much come to an end. It appears active weather may return as soon as Sunday night into early next week. Go figure. I did say at least half of July would end up in NW flow. We are certainly on track for that to happen.
Severe weather?
Severe weather risk Thursday night is low.
On Friday a few storms could become severe during the afternoon.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Northwest flow returns on Sunday night into early next week
As we move into next week it appears that northwest flow will develop again. What does that mean? Well, if you have been reading the blog over the last two months you will know that when northwest upper level wind flow develops it normally means active weather. Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms. That is what has been happening over our region for weeks on end.
These thunderstorm complexes come in from the west/northwest and produce very heavy rainfall totals. Pockets of 3-6″ have been common over the past few weeks. Even higher amounts than that.
Still some questions on timing for next weeks thunderstorms. But, at least some chance Sunday night into Monday. Beyond Monday will need to be monitored. Predicting these complexes even a day in advance can be tricky, at best.
If we do return to northwest flow then it will mean cooler temperatures or below normal temperatures, as well.
Keep that in mind.
All of July has been below normal, thus far. The end of June was also below normal. Yes, we have had some warm and muggy days, but still below normal in the temperature department.
Pulling out even further…this pattern could last into the end of July. Some signals for part of August. Let’s hope not.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals for Thursday night and Friday will be scattered. Isolated on Friday.
Any storms that manage to form in this atmosphere can produce locally heavy rain. The good news is that most areas will remain dry Friday into Sunday.
Rainfall totals from storms can quickly add up to 1-3″. Same as the last few weeks. Those who end up under the storms will have a gully washer.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a TWO for Thursday night. Right now Friday through Sunday should bring a ZERO to a ONE for risk levels. Any storms on Friday into Sunday would be isolated. Most areas will remain dry. Perhaps a chance again by Sunday night and Monday.
Thursday night Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms are possible, but should remain below severe levels.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Isolated severe storms possible during the afternoon hours.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
A few storms remain in the forecast for Thursday evening and night.
A couple of storms on Friday could become severe.
Heat is returning. Highs into the 90’s on Friday into Sunday. Heat index values may approach 100 at times.
If an isolated storm does pop up then heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning would be the primary concern.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
