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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Not at this time.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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March 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Clearing west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Avoid flooded roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 5:50 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 34° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 25° to 28° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:43 PM
Moonset: 8:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated southern counties
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 5:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain from the Bootheel eastward along the KY/TN border.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 3° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:55 PM
Moonset: 8:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 5:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:07 PM
Moonset: 9:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 60° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 5:53 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° SE MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 36° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 9:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 5:54 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:19 AM
Moonset: 10:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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March 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 48° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM.
Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:29 AM
Moonset: 11:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: A few clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 38° to 40° South IL 38° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:34 AM
Moonset: 12:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 5th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Avoid flooded roadways
Weather Discussion
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- No major weather concerns over the coming week.
- No severe storms. No winter storms.
A fairly straight-forward weather pattern over the coming week.
We had a stormy weekend, to say the least.
Major flooding was reported in some counties. Rain totals Saturday night and Sunday morning range from 0.50″ to 0ver 4.00″.
Particularly hard hit was Fulton County, Kentucky, eastward into the Land Between the Lakes area and then east into Christian and Todd Counties.
Numerous roads were flooded. Some homes and businesses flooded, as well.
Look at some of these incredible rain totals from Saturday night through Sunday. This reminds me of summer thunderstorms.
NW Tennessee into western Kentucky
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Murray area
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NW Tennessee into Graves County
There was no shortage of moisture for the thunderstorms to work with. Thus, the end result was heavy rain and flooding.
We have a calm day Monday and Monday night. Temperatures won’t be too bad for early March.
Meteorological spring begins today. Meteorologists consider spring to be March, April, and May!
I am sure we will have some severe weather events. We always do. Make sure you keep the Beau Dodson Weather app on.
A fast moving southern system will clip our region Tuesday and Tuesday night. The models are trending drier. I left rain chances out, for now.
Wednesday into Saturday should be dry.
Another southern system may clip the region Friday and Friday night. For now, however, I left the forecast dry.
I will monitor trends.
Saturday and Sunday should be dry. Temperatures won’t be extreme. Decent for early March.
I am watching Sunday as another fast moving system dives in from the northwest. For now, I left the forecast dry.
Is winter over? It looks that way.
I can’t rule out a wet snow event, but with each passing week the chances of that happening decrease.
Some of the data still shows one or two more cold shots. Nothing to worry about, for now.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
No rain in the forecast
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
The system later today and tonight. Weak event.
Short-range. The GFS pops some light sprinkles along the incoming Wednesday cold front. Do not expect much if anything at all.
No rain in the forecast
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 1st through March 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 8th through March 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers March 12th through March 25th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
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February Precipitation Outlook
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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