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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday night – Partly to mostly cloudy with some thunderstorms…especially during the evening. A few of the storms will produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees. Southerly winds at 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday – A mix of sun and clouds with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms from time to time. Some of the storms will produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Chance of precipitation will range from 50%-70% across the region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Saturday night – Partly cloudy with a 30% chance for a thunderstorm. Mild. Lows around 70 degrees. Southwest and south winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunday – Warm and humid. A 40% chance for a thunderstorm. Thunderstorms that form on Sunday could produce brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and even small hail. Highs will be generally in the 80’s with southwest winds at 10-15 mph. We will need to monitor Sunday for some stronger storms. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in the event a thunderstorm interrupts your activities.
Sunday night – A chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. Lows around 70 degrees. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Monday – A 70% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Cold front moves through the region. Highs mainly in the 70’s. Winds becoming west at 10-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Showers and storms are likely.
Have you checked out my social media feed page? You can view the latest Tweets and Facebook posts…all in one location. Click here to view the page.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thunderstorm chances will be with us on Saturday into Monday.
2. A few of the storms over the weekend could produce gusty winds. Severe weather risk is small, but not zero.
3. Rainfall totals will vary greatly over the region. Same as last weekend.
4. Warm conditions for the weekend and more humid.
Showers and thunderstorms will be with us over the coming days. There will be periods of dry time. The best chances for showers and storms will be this evening (Friday) and Saturday. Then lesser chances on Sunday. Chances then increase again on Sunday night and Monday as a cold front nears the region.
Sunday will be quite unstable in the region. Wind fields will also increase a bit. If storms can form on Sunday then they could be on the heavy side.
Let’s look at the 850 mb and 500 mb wind fields for Sunday. Sufficient winds for some heavier storms. Especially over parts of Missouri. Sunday will need to be monitored for perhaps a few stronger storms.
Here are the CAPE values for Sunday
What are CAPE values and what do they mean in relation to severe weather? I found a great post about CAPE values and this should explain it. For you go-getter weather enthusiasts – click here
Dew points are going to be high on both Saturday and Sunday. Dew points well into the 60’s and even approaching 70 degrees. That is a lot of moisture. Storms that form could produce locally heavy downpours.
What are dew points? Well, another great question. A lot of people confuse humidity and dew points. I like to use dew points to measure moisture in the air. This is the better way, actually. To learn more about dew points…click here
Here are the Saturday evening dew points
And here are the Sunday afternoon dew points
Showers and storms will be likely on Monday as a cold front approaches and moves through the area.
The latest data indicates some storms on Monday could be quite strong. Not sure about severe weather, just yet. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Another great photograph from Wunderground
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Campers and those who outdoor events should check radars and the latest forecast information. Showers and thunderstorms will be with us on Saturday into Monday. Right now the risk for severe weather appears minimal. However, lightning is always a concern for outdoor events.
Can’t rule out a severe cell on Sunday when instability is higher. Organized severe risk appears small. Same for Monday. Monitor updates.
An umbrella might be needed over the weekend…from time to time. Severe weather risk appears minimal. Monitor radars if you have outdoor events. Lightning data, as well. See the lightning data link further down in the blog.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – the wild card is going to be rainfall totals Saturday into Monday morning. Totals will vary quite a bit. Same as last weekend. Some places will pick up more than 1″ of rain. Another wild card will be a few storms becoming intense on Sunday. Instability is higher on Sunday. Monitor updates.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE for Saturday and TWO Sunday. I will need to monitor Sunday for a possible level TWO upgrade.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms are possible with heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds.
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Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms are possible with heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds.
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Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms are possible with heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds. Sunday will need to be monitored for the potential of a few stronger storms…especially over southeast Missouri. Monitor updated information.
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Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Showers and thunderstorms likely. I can’t rule out a severe storm on Monday. Monitor updates.
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Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Over the coming 3 day period you can expect widespread 0.40″-1.00″ rainfall totals. Again, they will vary greatly.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Drier weather arrives by Monday afternoon and night.
2. Much cooler again by Tuesday and Wednesday. Might some dip into the 40’s?
3. Rain might return by late next week. Some question on timing…models do not agree.
Cold front arrives on Monday. The front will be accompanied by showers and storms. After the front passes then you can expect dry weather for Monday night into Wednesday.
Models continue to flirt with bringing precipitation back into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. There is little to no agreement on this among the different model sets.
The overall appearance of the models between now and the end of the month is unsettled. This will continue into the first 2 weeks of June. Occasionally heavy storms and rain will be possible. If a front stalls out in the region then some very heavy rainfall totals could occur. Monitor updates.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
