Evening update
No changes.
My snow map stands.
Spotty precip tonight with temps above freezing.
Fast moving system. Much of the area will be above freezing when the snow falls. It won’t last long. The bulk of the widespread precip begins and ends between 3 AM and 2 PM.
Gusty winds will be with us tomorrow.
It is difficult to say if road conditions will become icy with temperatures above freezing, snow rate not all that high, March sun angle, and short duration of the event.
Temperatures will crash tomorrow evening/night. Any moisture left on roadways would freeze.
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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.
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- Go to today’s forecast
- Go to the winter storm and severe weather outlook
- Go to the weather forecast discussion
- Go to the model future-cast radars
- Go to videos
- Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature and precipitation graphics
- Go to Weatherbrains
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My regular detailed text forecast can be found below these graphics.
My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Tennessee
Today: Not today. Late tonight a Rain/snow mix with develop west to east. Temperatures will be above freezing for most of the area through much of the night. Monitor morning hours.
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Tomorrow: A mix of rain and snow will blanket the area tomorrow. At this time, snow totals look to be light. I have updated my forecast numbers. The best chance of sticking snow will be from Poplar Bluff, MO towards Evansville, IN. From that line north and west stand the best chance. Areas south of that line may also have some accumulation. Rivers will continue to flood, keep that in mind. Avoid flooded roadways.
- Monitoring show chances late tonight into Sunday.
- Much colder air is poised to move into the region. A return to winter.
Confidence rating explained.
- High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
- Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
- Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.
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Today through Monday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. See graphics below. Some snow is likely late tonight north and area-wide Sunday. Rain changing to snow. Light accumulations possible.
- Is lightning in the forecast? No.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding, however, will continue.
Tuesday through next Monday
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Another storm system could bring a wintry mix late in the week. Low confidence in snow occurring (this far out).
- Is lightning in the forecast? No.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.
* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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March 1, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Thickening clouds. Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% MO 20% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Saturday night Forecast: First half of the night could have spotty precip. Temps above freezing. No problems. Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain developing. Some accumulation is possible mainly over our northwestern and northern counties (parts of SE MO and SW IL). Questions remain about temperatures and the track of the area of low pressure. Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 32° to 36° NW TN 35° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 90% Southeast MO 90% Southern IL 80% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 80% NW TN 80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage as we move deeper into the night. Most of the precip will be after midnight. Spotty before.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Snow and ice covered roads are possible depending on the track of the area of low pressure.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 5:50 PM
Moonrise: 4:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:18 PM
March 3, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow changing to all snow. Some accumulation is likely. Icy roads.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 36° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North at 14 to 24 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 25°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 100% MO 100% IL 100% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 100% Western KY 100% NW TN 100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Snow and ice covered roads. Low wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Much colder. Low wind chill values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° SE MO 6° to 14° South IL 6° to 14° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 15° West KY 13° to 16° NW TN 14° to 16°
Wind direction and speed: North at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -6° to 10°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% Southern IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Ending. It all may be over before 5 PM. I left slight chances in for flurries.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Snow and ice covered roads are possible in areas that received snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor road conditions. Some areas may be okay. That remains a question. How far south and east will the snow cause road issues.
Sunset: 5:51 PM
Moonrise: 4:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:13 PM
March 4, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 20°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some icy roads are possible. Low wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check road conditions.
UV Index: 4 moderate
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Cold. Cold wind chill values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° SE MO 10° to 15° South IL 10° to 15° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 12° to 15° West KY 14° to 18° NW TN 14° to 18°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor road conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 5:52 PM
Moonrise: 5:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:08 PM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Cold. Highs in the 20’s and 30’s. Lows in the single digits and teens.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Cold. Highs in the 20’s and 30’s. Lows in the teens.
Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of precipitation. Cold. Highs in the 30’s and 40’s. Lows in the 30’s.
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today and tomorrow: No severe weather concerns.
Saturday through next Saturday: No severe weather concerns.
Saturday through Monday: Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Some of my forecast counties will receive accumulation.
Bitterly cold air will filter into the region Sunday into the middle of next week. If we have a snowpack then single digits will be possible. Either way, it will be cold.
Areas without power, because of flooding, could have issues with pipes busting and ice forming. Standing water may freeze in flood areas, as well. This is especially true of the backwater.
Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.
Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type
You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here..
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Some wintry weather this weekend.
- Cold air is on the way. Bitterly cold wind chill values.
Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
Yes. Major adjustments were made to the snowfall forecast numbers.
Lowered temps by a few degrees today.
Does the forecast require action?
Yes. A wintry mix is likely mainly late Saturday night into Sunday. Some accumulating snow is likely. Some icy roads will be the end result.
Yes. Bitterly cold wind chill values will require protective clothing.
Yes. Avoid flooded roadways.
Widespread river flooding continues across the region.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
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Forecast discussion.
The main topic is the winter weather event.
This has been a pain to forecast. That is an understatement. Not a single model agrees with the final outcome.
The system is still not fully onshore. That means the models still have not fully sampled it.
Needless to say, confidence in the snow forecast is not all that great. Changes are still possible.
I already lowered totals from the original thinking.
I tell people that an accurate snow forecast can not be made more than 24 hours in advance. This system once again proves that to be true.
This may need adjusting.
Let’s start with this and then I will update as necessary.
We may see most of this event end up snow. The issue will be surface temperatures. It can snow with temperatures in the middle and upper 30’s. It just won’t stick. It takes time for the ground temperature to drop. Snow rate can overcome this. That means if the snow comes down heavy enough it can accumulate even with temperatures above freezing.
That is one part of the forecast that should be monitored.
Either way, locations with rain should change to at least a period of snow.
Elsewhere, this is mainly a snow event.
I went on the low end of guidance for these numbers. These are quite a bit less than I was thinking yesterday.
Remember, the system is still not being handle all that great by the model guidance.
Timeline of concerns:
Rain, sleet, and snow are likely to develop late tonight into early Sunday afternoon.
The question will be the precipitation type and amounts.
Bitterly cold air will follow this storm system.
A snowpack would mean temperatures dropping into the single digits Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday night. Teens are for certain. Highs in the 20’s and 30’s.
This is bad news for the flood zone. Those without power may have water pipes burst. There could be ice form inside of unheated homes that have flood water in them. The backwater areas may also freeze over. That would mainly be still water areas.
You can see some of that colder air on this model temperature animation. The timestamp is located in the upper left.
Temperatures will vary based on snow totals.
Click to enlarge
Wind chill temperatures will also be bitterly cold.
During short wind gusts, we could see -5 to 5-degree wind chill values.
More likely will be consistent 5 to 15-degree wind chill values Sunday night into Tuesday morning.
6 AM Monday (wind chill values during the day will range from 6 to 12 above.
These numbers represent the numbers during peak wind gusts.
Tuesday at 6 AM
Wind chill values through most of the day will average in the 8 to 16-degree range.
These numbers represent the numbers during peak wind gusts.
Wednesday at 6 AM
Wind chill values during most of the day will range from 10 to 15 degrees.
These numbers represent the numbers during peak wind gusts.
River Flooding To Continue
River flooding is going to continue through the week. I know many of you are having flooding issues.
Speaking of flooding, here are some links to help you track the crest numbers.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
This is the GFS model.
Future-cast radar. What radar might look like based on this particular models understanding of the system.
Pink is freezing rain and perhaps some sleet. Green is rain. Blue is snow.
Timestamp upper left.
Click to enlarge.
This is the NAM model
Future-cast radar. What radar might look like based on this particular models understanding of the system.
Pink is freezing rain and perhaps some sleet. Green is rain. Blue is snow.
Timestamp upper left.
Click to enlarge.
Here is another view of the NAM model
This is the Hrrr model
Future-cast radar. What radar might look like based on this particular models understanding of the system.
Pink is freezing rain and perhaps some sleet. Green is rain. Blue is snow.
Timestamp upper left.
Click to enlarge.
Current conditions.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.
The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.
NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
No video today
The Ohio Valley video
Long-range This video.
No video today
The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)
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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.
** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **
The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.
The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.
Days six through ten temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days six through ten precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook
Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?
The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.
Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.
Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 1st through March 7th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″
This outlook covers March 8th through March 14th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″
This outlook covers March 15th through March 28th
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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March temperature and precipitation outlook
April temperature and precipitation outlook
May temperature and precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.
Temperature outlook
Precipitation outlook
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Also joining us as Guest WeatherBrain No. 2. is the Chief Meteorologist at FOX29 in San Antonio and is the President and CEO of the National Tropical Weather Conference. Alex Garcia, welcome to the WeatherBrains!
Last but not least, the Vice President for Operations of the National Tropical Weather Conference joins us on the show. In addition, he’s the Chief Meteorologist at KRGV in Weslaco, TX. Tim Smith, welcome!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
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- Foot of rain falls in parts of Southeast
- EF3 in Columbus, MS on 2/23/19
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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