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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A 10% chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Very small risk for lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west/southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to very isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly sunny. Breezy, at times. Hot and humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Heat index should reach into the 90’s to perhaps 102 degrees. A stray thunderstorm could produce wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% (at any given location)
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated thunderstorms
Is severe weather expected? No, but if storms do form they could produce frequent lightning and strong winds. Isolated damaging wind threat.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:09 a.m. First quarter.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for an isolated thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds west/northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No, but storms could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly sunny. Muggy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range. Heat index into the upper 90s to around 100.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No, but storms could produce frequent lightning. Isolated high winds possible near thunderstorms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. Muggy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A few storms could be strong.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate/High.
Moonrise will be at 3:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A few strong storms possible. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to numerous
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible. The overall severe weather threat is small, but perhaps not zero. A few storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate/High.
Moonrise will be at 3:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible. The overall severe weather threat is small, but perhaps not zero. A few storms could produce strong winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. High.
Moonrise will be at 4:51 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:14 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Medium to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:46 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:49 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-86 degree range
Winds: Northwest/north winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-85 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:09 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-86 degree range
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 8:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:57 a.m. Full moon.
Monday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. A thunderstorm is possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Heat wave to continue.
- Increasing thunderstorm chances.
- Low confidence on the forecast once we move past Wednesday.
- Heavy rain potential during the upcoming week.
The main weather story on Sunday and Monday will be the heat. Both Sunday and Monday will deliver temperatures well into the 90’s. Heat index values of 95 to 102 degrees will be the general rule during the afternoon hours. Not all that pleasant. Muggy. High dew points. Lot of moisture in the atmosphere.
A few scattered storms could pop up on Sunday and Monday. But, storm chances will increase as we move deeper into the new work week. The chances may peak on Wednesday. Locally heavy rain is possible. Severe weather threat will be small, but not zero. The main concern would be gusty winds and frequent lightning.
LOW confidence in the forecast past Wednesday.
The forecast confidence decreases from Thursday into next weekend. An upper level low could stall out over or near our region. This would cause continued thunderstorm chances just about every day. But, confidence is low.
Rainfall totals from Monday into the weekend should range from 0.50″-1.00″ area wide. And, some locations could top three inches of rain. Isolated areas could experience excessive totals. Isolated flash flooding will be a concern. Slow moving storms could produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. Typical June weather. Historically some of our greatest flash flood events occur during June and July.
Monitor updates over the coming days.
Temperatures from Tuesday into Thursday will depend on cloud cover. There is the risk for 90’s on Tuesday and Wednesday. That is if the clouds are not too thick. If clouds are more predominate then middle to upper 80’s would be the general rule.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday into Sunday night: Isolated thunderstorm chance. Severe weather is not anticipated. Storms could, however, produce strong winds. Isolated spots.
Monday into Friday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Monitor updates. A few storms could produce damaging winds. Heavy rain is possible, as well. Frequent lightning.
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No major changes. Low confidence in the forecast once we move past Wednesday.
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No major short range weather concerns (other than hot weather). Isolated thunderstorms could produce strong winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
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Summer heat will be a concern on Sunday and Monday. UV index will range from 9-10 on Sunday and Monday. Heat index values of 95-102 degrees.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
