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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Weather Forecast Update
☀️ Near-record heat again today!
Another unusually hot October day is ahead. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 90s. Some locations could tie or break record highs.
Humidity will be a little higher today, making it feel about 3 to 6 degrees hotter than the actual temperature.
It will also be an unusually warm night, with temperatures only falling to around 70 degrees. Some record warm overnight temperatures are possible.
🌧️ Rain and thunderstorms return
A weather system will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms to our region.
Here is the latest timing:
- Late tonight: A few showers and thunderstorms may develop across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Rain chances will be around 20% to 40%.
- Wednesday: Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected. Rain chances will be 60% to 80% across the entire region.
- Wednesday night and Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms will continue. Rain chances will range from 30% to 70%.
- Thursday night: A cold front will move through the region. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible, with rain chances of 20% to 40% across most areas. Southern portions of western Kentucky will have lower chances.
📍 Who has the highest rain chances?
The highest rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday will be across the northern half of our region, especially near the Interstate 64 corridor. See the rainfall graphics farther down (below) in this update.
Rain chances will be somewhat lower farther south, especially near the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee state lines.
🍂 Much cooler weather arrives Friday!
Big changes are coming by the end of the week!
Friday will be dry, windy, and much cooler.
- High temperatures will only reach the middle 60s to around 70 degrees.
- Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph.
- Wind gusts could approach 30 mph.
That’s quite a change from the record heat earlier in the week!
🥶 Saturday and Saturday night will be the coldest part of the forecast.
Saturday afternoon temperatures will only reach 60 to 65 degrees.
By Saturday night, temperatures could fall into the middle to upper 30s, with lows generally between 35 and 40 degrees.
There is even a chance of patchy frost Saturday night into Sunday morning!
That depends on how much temperatures drop and whether winds calm down.
Temperatures will be around 8 to 12 degrees below normal for this time of year.
🌤️ Warmer weather returns next week.
The cool weather won’t last long.
Temperatures will begin warming Sunday and return to near-normal levels.
By Monday, temperatures should climb a few degrees above normal again.
The Bottom Line
🔥 Today: Near-record heat. Highs in the lower to middle 90s.
🌧️ Wednesday and Thursday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Highest rain chances Wednesday.
💨 Friday: Dry, windy, and much cooler.
🥶 Saturday night: Chilly! Lows of 35 to 40 degrees. Patchy frost possible.
☀️ Sunday and Monday: Temperatures begin warming again.
Quite a weather roller coaster this week! From record October heat to a possible touch of frost in just a few days.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
October 13th through October 20th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NO.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is likely late tonight into Wednesday night. A smaller chance on Thursday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Scattered 90-degree readings today.
5. Will temperatures fall below 32 degrees? UNLIKELY.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. This afternoon.
7. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill forecast fall below 10 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
⚠️ Totals for the tropical depression will vary. Some higher totals are likely. ⚠️
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are models.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3k
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Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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GFS Model
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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