.
Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
October 12th
Monday Morning Weather Update
🌡️ Record Heat Possible Today and Tuesday!
We have a little bit of everything in the forecast this week. Record warmth, showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds, and then a big drop in temperatures!
☀️ TODAY AND TOMORROW: VERY WARM.
- Plenty of sunshine today and Tuesday.
- Highs today will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
- Tuesday will be even warmer, with highs between 88 and 95 degrees!
- Some locations could tie or break record high temperatures.
- Overnight temperatures will also be unusually warm, with lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
- Breezy southwest winds will help bring in the warmer air.
🌧️ WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: RAIN RETURNS!
A cold front will slowly move into our region Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring increasing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
- Rain chances begin increasing late Tuesday night. Especially over Missouri and Illinois.
- Wednesday and Thursday will bring the best rain chances.
- Rain chances will be highest across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana.
- Rain chances will be somewhat lower across portions of western Kentucky, especially the Pennyrile and Land Between the Lakes areas.
Wednesday afternoon rain chances:
- 70% to 90% across much of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and portions of western Kentucky.
- 30% to 60% across the Pennyrile and Land Between the Lakes areas.
A few showers and thunderstorms may continue Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Rain should end by Friday, although that part of the forecast may still need some adjustments.
🍂 FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: HERE COMES AUTUMN!
A much colder air mass will arrive behind the cold front.
Friday:
- Highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
- Gusty north and northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph.
- Wind gusts could reach 30 mph. This will make it feel even cooler.
- Friday night lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s. There is some disagreement on how cold it will be Friday and Saturday nights.
Saturday:
- Highs only around 60 to 65 degrees.
- Saturday night lows between 38 and 44 degrees. There is some disagreement on how cold it will be Friday and Saturday nights. Rural areas can always be a tad colder.
- A chilly autumn night across the region! If temperatures drop into the 30s, patchy frost becomes possible.
Sunday:
- Dry weather continues.
- Temperatures begin warming again.
- Highs return to around 70 degrees.
🍁 THE BOTTOM LINE
We go from near-record warmth Monday and Tuesday to much cooler autumn weather by Friday and Saturday.
That is quite a temperature swing in just a few days.
Enjoy the warmth while it lasts. By the weekend, you will probably be reaching for a jacket, especially during the morning and evening hours.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
October 12th through October 19th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: LOW RISK. Right now, the threat of severe weather appears minimal. I will keep an eye on late Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A cold front will move across the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
.
Seven-Day Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely late Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A smaller chance on Thursday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Scattered 90-degree readings today and tomorrow.
5. Will temperatures fall below 32 degrees? UNLIKELY.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
7. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill forecast fall below 10 degrees? NO.
.
.
Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
.
Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
.
.
Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
⚠️ Totals for the tropical depression will vary. Some higher totals are likely. ⚠️
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are models.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS
.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
.
NAM Model
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
.
https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
