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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, then please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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🔥 LATE-SEASON HEAT WAVE CONTINUES
The late-season heat wave is underway and will continue through the end of the week.
The Heat Advisory has now been extended through 7 PM Saturday for the entire region. The hot weather is expected to stick around a little longer than previously forecast.
Double-click on the image to enlarge it.
Here are some local city forecasts for the wet-bulb temperature and heat index.
🌡️ The combination of heat and humidity is unusual for this late in September.
While temperatures this hot can occasionally happen during the second half of September, the humidity and resulting heat index values are much more unusual. The length of this event is also highly unusual.
This is especially concerning because many outdoor fall activities and events are taking place.
If you plan to spend a long period of time outside, take heat precautions, drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks. When possible, consider moving outdoor activities to the cooler morning or evening hours.
🔥 Wednesday and Thursday: High temperatures will reach the upper 90s to around 100°. Humidity will make it feel like 103° to 109° during the hottest part of the day.
🔥 Friday: Temperatures will remain very hot, but slightly lower humidity should help bring heat index values down somewhat.
🔥 Saturday: Temperatures will again reach the upper 90s to around 100°. Humidity will continue to decrease, but heat index values may still climb above 100°. This is why the Heat Advisory has been extended through Saturday evening.
🌙 Nights won’t provide much relief. Overnight lows will generally remain in the lower to middle 70s.
Both daytime highs and nighttime lows could approach or break records during this heat wave.
⛈️ A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday, mainly north of Interstate 64. Any storms that develop will be scattered and aren’t expected to provide widespread relief from the heat.
The rest of the region will likely remain dry.
🌤️ Some relief should finally arrive early next week.
Next week will not be as hot. I’m not sure I would use the word cooler. Anything beats the last three weeks.
Sunday will still be hot, with highs in the lower to mid-90s.
A cold front should begin pushing into the region Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday and the middle to upper 80s Tuesday.
There could also be a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday as the front moves through. Clouds would help it stay slightly cooler, as well.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
September 16th through September 22nd
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. A small chance of lightning today over northern southeast Missouri and northern southern Illinois.
Scattered lightning possible Sunday night through Tuesday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through Sunday. Perhaps Monday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today through Sunday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Eastern View
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Today. Wednesday
Sunday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr model
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Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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NAM 3k Model
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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