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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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A few clouds in the region this morning. I added showers to the forecast last night across portions of the area. That has dissipated.
No major weather concerns today or tonight.
Tonight into Wednesday morning:
A warm front will move north toward our area. This could bring a few showers or isolated thunderstorms, mainly across Southeast Missouri. Most of these storms would likely be elevated, meaning they would occur above the surface. That will keep the severe weather risk at zero.
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning:
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase as a cold front moves south through the area. A few strong to severe storms are possible, especially if enough instability develops. Winds higher in the atmosphere will also strengthen, which could help storms intensify. The primary concern right now is southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Overall, a low risk.
Thursday night through Saturday:
Behind the cold front, drier and less humid air will move into the region. Expect more comfortable conditions. That won’t last, unfortunately.
Sunday into next week:
The ridge of high pressure will build eastward across the Southern U.S., bringing another warm-up as temperatures climb back above 90°. We will have to see if more heat advisories are necessary.
Early next week:
Some forecasts show temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 90s. Humidity will also increase, with dew points returning to the upper 60s and lower 70s. This could push heat index values above 100° again.
Rain chances: Overall, the next week looks fairly dry. There is only a 15-25% chance of receiving at least 0.25 inches of rain through Monday. Most locations are more likely to stay dry than receive significant rainfall.
🌡️ Bottom line:
A few storms are possible Wednesday, with a better chance Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air follows Thursday. Then, the heat returns this weekend and could become quite intense early next week.
Let me show you the EC Model ensembles. This is the average of 50+ model runs.
You can see it might stay hot for a while. Keep in mind, once you get past day seven, the confidence decreases.
Either way, it looks like summer won’t be over for a while.
I chose Mt. Vernon, Illinois, and Paducah, Kentucky for locations. Other cities would be similar.
The colored number bar shows the average across all model runs for that date. The high and low temperatures.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 25th through August 31st
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: LOW RISK. A few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night could produce strong wind gusts and small hail. Monitor updates.
Here is the official Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook.
The light green is where storms are possible, but likely below severe levels. The dark green is where there is a low-level risk of a few storms becoming severe with strong wind gusts and small hail. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? SCATTERED. A chance on Wednesday through Thursday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Some locations may flirt with 90 this week. Mostly eighties through Thursday. Highs may reach the lower 90s by the weekend. Highs in the 90s are likely by Sunday into much of next week.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Likely by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Perhaps beyond.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Let’s Look At The Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
NOTES:
- This is through next Thursday.
- Scattered storms are possible Saturday into next week. Some areas may simply remain dry. A few spots will pick up a summer downpour.
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Wednesday
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Wednesday night
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Thursday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
NAM 3K Model
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RRFS Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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