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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
A fairly tame weather forecast. Not a lot going on other than the heat.
Shower and thunderstorm chances through next Wednesday will remain on the low end. Most of the region will stay dry. Some areas could use a bit of rain. It is becoming dry.
Soil moisture is running low. If we aren’t careful, then drought will build back in.
A line of thunderstorms will move south toward the Evansville Tri-State area early this morning. However, the storms should weaken before reaching most of our area because of the very warm air aloft. A few showers or storms could briefly move in, but they should quickly fade away.
Here was the 6 am radar loop. You can see all of that to our north.
Again, as this sinks southward, it will weaken and eventually dissipate.
🔥 The extreme heat remains the main concern. The strong high-pressure system responsible for the heat will continue to strengthen through the weekend. Temperatures and humidity will remain very high.
An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect, with heat index values of 105-115 degrees expected through the weekend. This will be a dangerous and prolonged stretch of extreme heat.
Use care. Hydrate. Check on the elderly. Change your pets’ water bowls frequently.
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🌡️ A front and a few upper-level disturbances will move through Monday, bringing a brief break from the heat. Temperatures should fall into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Looking ahead, temperatures may trend cooler toward the end of next week, with additional chances for rain. However, temperatures could briefly warm back up Wednesday and Thursday.
September is not too far off. That will mean cooler temperatures. But let’s not speed it up. Time moves fast enough as it is!
Bottom Line:
⛈️ A few early-morning storms may weaken as they move south towards southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Dry elsewhere.
🔥 Extreme heat continues through the weekend. Use care.
🌡️ Heat indexes of 105-115° are expected.
🌤️ A brief “cooldown” is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs may still be in the 90s (perhaps upper 80s in northwest KY).
🌧️ More rain chances and somewhat cooler temperatures may develop late next week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 14th through August 21st
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: NONE ANTICIPATED.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? ISOLATED. A small chance today over northwest KY and southeast IL. A small chance on Sunday. Another chance on Wednesday. I will monitor next Friday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through much of next week.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today through at least Sunday. I will monitor Monday onward.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? YES. A few reporting stations could hit 110 or slightly higher over the coming days.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Two-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
These totals are through the weekend.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Friday (today)
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Sunday Night
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Monday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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RRFS Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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