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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
A cooler weather pattern remains over the eastern United States, while high pressure builds over the Upper Midwest.
With light winds, clear skies, and some leftover moisture, patchy fog may develop this morning in a few areas.
☀️ Dry Weather Through Wednesday
High pressure will keep the Quad State region dry through Wednesday, with most of the rain staying east and southeast of our area.
With plenty of sunshine:
- 🌡️ Today: Highs in the middle 80s
- 🌡️ Tuesday: Highs in the middle to upper 80s
- 🌡️ Wednesday: Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, with some areas in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri likely reaching 90 degrees.
⛈️ Rain Returns Late This Week
Beginning Thursday, a new weather pattern will bring back daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. These rain chances will continue through the weekend.
Not everyone will see rain every day, but scattered storms will be possible during the hottest part of the afternoon.
I have started the rain chances at 20 to 30%. I am sure there will be some adjustments to some of the 12-hour time periods. Once confidence increases, then I will bump them up a bit.
There aren’t any strong signals for widespread rain at this time.
The primary concern will be locally heavy summer downpours and lightning.
🥵 Hotter and More Humid by the Weekend
Temperatures will stay close to normal through the weekend, but humidity will increase as muggy air returns.
By Sunday, it could feel like 100 to 105 degrees during the afternoon because of the combination of heat and humidity.
Many locations have a good chance of reaching 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday, and another heat wave may begin early next week.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 3rd through August 10th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Isolated to scattered lightning is possible from Thursday into next Monday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain. If showers and thunderstorms train over the same area, then some localized issues could develop.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Possible on Wednesday and Thursday. Perhaps into early next week, as well. The chances may be a bit higher from Friday into Monday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Next Sunday and Monday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Use these graphics as a general guide.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Thursday
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Thursday night
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Friday
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Friday night
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Saturday
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Saturday night
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Sunday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
Nothing shows up on the 72-hour future-cast.
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NAM 3K Model
Nothing shows up on the 72-hour future-cast.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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