I am going to try to streamline the blog. Centered on the most important aspects of the forecast.
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Key Points
- ⛈️Rain chances return Wednesday night and continue through Saturday. The best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible tomorrow afternoon over southeast Missouri.
- Rainfall totals from Thursday through Saturday night could reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches in southern Illinois, with most other areas receiving less than 1.5 inches. As always, summer thunderstorms will produce a wide variety of rain totals.
- A few of the thunderstorms could be strong on Thursday and Friday. Perhaps Saturday (if storms remain). Monitor updates.
- 🌡️ Hot summer weather returns by the end of the weekend. High temperatures will climb into the 90s from Sunday through Wednesday.
- The combination of heat and humidity could make it feel 105 degrees or hotter on Monday and Tuesday, so heat safety may become a concern.
Bottom Line: Expect an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms late this week, especially Thursday and Friday. After that, much hotter weather moves in, with dangerous heat and humidity possible early next week.
Additional discussion
- Enjoy the pleasant weather today. High pressure will keep the region dry with comfortable humidity levels. Afternoon temperatures will be in the lower 80s, and it won’t feel overly humid.
- Wednesday now looks mostly dry as well. Only a small chance (around 20%) of an isolated shower or thunderstorm is expected, mainly across southeast Missouri.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase on Thursday, becoming more numerous Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday night into Friday. Rain chances will remain high through Friday night before gradually decreasing on Saturday.
- Dew points (moisture) will also increase significantly late this week, with muggy conditions returning as moisture moves in from the south.
- Rainfall totals from Thursday through Saturday night could reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches across southern Illinois, with most areas farther south receiving less than 1.5 inches. Expect a wide range of totals. The track of each MCS (thunderstorm complex) will need to be monitored.
- Summer heat returns by the weekend. Temperatures will steadily climb, reaching the 90s by Sunday.
- Combined with high dew points (humidity), it could feel like 100 to 105 degrees on Sunday.
- Monday and Tuesday look even hotter, with highs in the mid-90s and heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees. Heat advisories may be needed if these conditions continue!
🌤️ Bottom Line: Pleasant weather continues through Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorms become more likely Thursday through Saturday, followed by a return to hot and very humid summer weather by Sunday and early next week.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
June 23rd through June 30th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
Current severe weather risk: POSSIBLE. I am monitoring Friday’s weather.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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🌪️ Current tornado risk: MONITOR.
I am monitoring Friday’s thunderstorms. Some could be severe. I will need to monitor the tornado risk.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: LOW.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible from Wednesday through Saturday.
2. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED ISSUES. Widespread issues are currently not anticipated.
Locally heavy rain could occur in thunderstorms. Typical for mid-June. Any issues would be isolated.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Possible on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Next week.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? POSSIBLE. Next week.
Your body responds to the heat index. The heat index is more important than the actual temperature. More information about the heat index: Click here.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Here were the 5 AM temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
* As is typical for late spring, totals will vary greatly. Thunderstorms can double your rainfall totals. Keep that in mind.
Not everyone will see the totals shown. Take the general idea from it.
The track of each MCS (thunderstorm complex) will determine rainfall totals.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the five-day rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday
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7 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday
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7 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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GFS Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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