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Key Points
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🌧️ A couple of thunderstorms will be possible today over mainly southeast Missouri. Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight and will continue on and off through Saturday. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday and Friday. It will not rain the entire time. On and off periods of storms. See the rain probability graphics below.
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A few of the thunderstorms could be strong on Thursday and Friday. Gusty wind is the main concern. Whether we see hail and/or a tornado is uncertain. I will need to monitor trends in the guidance.
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💧 From Thursday through Saturday night, total rainfall could reach 1.5 to 3 inches across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. Most other areas will likely receive less than 1.5 inches. As always, summer thunderstorms can produce isolated higher totals. See the rainfall graphics below.
🥵 Hot weather arrives late this weekend and continues into next week. High temperatures will climb well into the 90s, and it could feel hotter than 105 degrees on Monday and Tuesday due to the high dew points (moisture in the air).
Bottom Line: Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Lower chances on Saturday. Dry and hot Sunday through Wednesday of next week.
Additional discussion
A front will bring several chances of showers and heavy thunderstorms into the region over the coming days. Monitor updates in case a few storms become severe.
Our first heat wave will develop next week. I am forecasting widespread 90s from Sunday through at least Wednesday (perhaps beyond). Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees are likely. The heat index is what the air feels like to your body. That is what causes heat illnesses.
🌤️ High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move east today, allowing warmer and more humid air to return as winds turn from the south.
🌦️ A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes and Plains will trigger a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across western parts of the region (southeast Missouri). Some storms may develop in Missouri, but most are expected to weaken as they move east.
🌧️ The front will stall over the region late this week, bringing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances increase Thursday, with the highest chances occurring from Thursday night through Friday night. Showers and storms may continue into Saturday before drier weather arrives on Sunday.
⛈️ Some storms late Thursday and Friday could become strong or severe. Damaging winds and other severe weather hazards will be possible. Monitor updates moving forward. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App for updates.
💦 Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern. Multiple rounds of showers and storms could lead to localized flash flooding, especially in areas that receive repeated storms.
☀️ By Sunday, drier weather returns as a summer heat pattern develops. High temperatures will climb into the 90s next week.
🥵 Combined with high dew points (moisture in the air), it could feel like 105 to 110 degrees during the first part of next week. Be prepared for oppressive heat if you have outdoor plans.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
June 24th through July 1st.
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: POSSIBLE. I am monitoring the weather on Thursday and Friday. Damaging wind would be the primary threat. Perhaps downburst winds, as well. For now, the risk appears limited and not widespread.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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🌪️ Current tornado risk: MONITOR.
I am monitoring the thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Some could be severe. I will need to monitor the tornado risk. For now, the tornado risk appears limited.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: LOW.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible from this afternoon (mainly SE MO) through Saturday night. Peak chances will be tomorrow and Friday.
2. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED ISSUES. Widespread issues are currently not anticipated.
Locally heavy rain could occur in thunderstorms. Typical for June. Scattered reports of flash flooding will be possible where thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same areas.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Possible on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. I will monitor from next Thursday onward.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Next week.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? POSSIBLE. Next week.
Your body responds to the heat index. The heat index is more important than the actual temperature. More information about the heat index: Click here.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Chances will vary GREATLY from north to south (see the other rain probability graphics below).
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Here were the 5 AM temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
* As is typical for summer, totals will vary greatly. Thunderstorms can double your rainfall totals. Keep that in mind.
Not everyone will see the totals shown. Take the general idea from it.
The track of each MCS (thunderstorm complex) will determine rainfall totals.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the five-day rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday
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7 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday
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7 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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Hrrr Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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