Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

I am going to try to streamline the blog.  Centered on the most important aspects of the forecast.   

.

Key Points

Very Windy Today
A Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon through sunset for much of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and parts of northwest Kentucky. A Lake Wind Advisory is also in effect for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley.

• Southwest winds will blow at 15 to 30 mph.
• Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected.
• The strongest winds will be across southern Illinois.
• Boaters should use care today and tonight.

⛈️ A Limited Severe Storm Risk Tonight.  Confidence is low on just how far south these storms move.
A line of thunderstorms is expected to move across the region late this evening and overnight.  There remain questions about how this event unfolds.  Monitor updates late today and tonight.   Tomorrow, as well.

Quite a bit of data weakens the line tonight as it moves southward into our region.  There will be a CAP on the atmosphere.  A lid of warm air.  This usually weakens thunderstorms.  I will just need to monitor the data today.

• Some storms could produce damaging winds.  Hail, as well.
• A low-end tornado risk may develop.  Mainly over southern Illinois and the Evansville tri-state area.
• The greatest risk is along and near the Interstate 64 corridor in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.  The risk decreases as you move farther south-southeast.

Here is the latest graphic from the Storm Prediction Center and NWS

As you can see, the risk is higher as you travel north.

Light green indicates non-severe thunderstorms.  The dark green and yellow zone is a level one and two risk.

It is possible the SPC shifts this around a bit.  Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App.  I will send out alerts.

Notice how this model shows the greatest numbers of southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky.

Those higher numbers represent a greater risk of a few severe thunderstorms tonight.

.

🌧️ More Storms on Thursday.  There remain significant questions about how far south the boundary pushes late tonight.  If the boundary pushes far enough south, then the chances of showers and thunderstorms will decrease.  
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Thursday night, especially across the Missouri Bootheel and western Kentucky.  Northwest Tennessee, as well.

• Rain chances range from 40% to 70%.  See graphics below.
• A few storms could become strong.  There is a low-end risk of severe storms.  This will depend heavily on just how far south the boundary pushes tonight.  Adjustments are possible in Thursday’s forecast.
• Strong winds are the main concern on Thursday, especially in the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee during the afternoon.  Monitor updates, as always.  I will know more later this morning.

☀️ Nicer Weather for Friday and Saturday
Cooler, drier, and less humid weather is expected Friday into Saturday.  Enjoy that.

🌦️ Storm Chances Return This Weekend
Another unsettled weather pattern is expected to develop Saturday night and continue through at least the first half of next week, bringing more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast Discussion

Strong gusty winds are expected today and tonight across the Quad State. Wind speeds will increase through the afternoon, with the strongest winds arriving after 5 PM. Some areas of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana could see wind gusts over 45 mph. Winds will be a little lighter across western Kentucky, but conditions will still be breezy, especially on area lakes.

There is a limited risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight. The strongest storms are expected to develop farther north across Illinois and Missouri, then move southeast toward the Quad State after 10 PM. If these storms hold together, they could bring.  There are questions about just how far south this line will move before weakening.
🌪️ An isolated tornado risk (mainly in my far northern counties)
💨 Isolated damaging wind gusts (mainly in my far northern counties)
🧊 Quarter-sized hail (mainly in my far northern counties)

The greatest concern would be overnight into the early morning hours, especially across the Evansville Tri-State region.

Here is the latest shower and thunderstorm probability map.  What is the % chance of rain from 7 PM to 7 AM.  Notice how the chances are higher north and lower south.

There are significant questions about how far south the thunderstorms will spread before weakening.

My concern for severe weather is a bit higher over southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky.

Thursday’s storm chances are less certain. Some weather models suggest the focus for stronger storms may stay south of our area. However, additional thunderstorms could develop Thursday afternoon, especially from southeast Missouri through western Kentucky. A few storms could become strong or severe, with damaging winds being the primary threat.

Dry weather returns Friday and Saturday. Cooler, less humid air will move into the region, providing a break from the active weather pattern.

Rain and storm chances return by Saturday night and continue into next week. Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible through the first half of next week. Rainfall totals could reach 2 to 3 inches in some areas, which may increase the risk of flooding if storms repeatedly move over the same locations.

Bottom Line

🌬️ Very windy today
🌪️ A limited risk of severe storms late tonight
⛈️ Additional storms on Thursday (especially in our southern counties)
☀️ Drier Friday and Saturday.  Enjoy.
🌧️ Storm chances return Saturday night into next week with a growing flood risk

.

.

.

🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️

June 17th  through June 23rd

A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.

Current severe weather risk:  POSSIBLE.  A few thunderstorms tonight could produce gusty winds and hail.  A low-end tornado risk, as well.  There is a CAP on the atmosphere.  A layer of warm air.  This could prevent thunderstorms from becoming severe in our local area. 

The threat is higher from Ste. Genevieve County, Missouri, eastward across northern portions of southern Illinois. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App. 

Tonight: The greatest risk of severe thunderstorm warnings will be from Jefferson County, Illinois, southeast towards Evansville, Indiana.  In other words, southeast Illinois.  Everyone else will need to monitor updates.  The risk tonight is lowest as you travel farther south.

Tomorrow: A few thunderstorms could be strong with high wind gusts and nickel-sized hail.  The threat on Thursday will mainly be from extreme southern Illinois into far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  There are also questions about how far south the boundary will push late tonight.  This will impact the severe weather risk.  If the boundary pushes far enough south, then the threat will be lower.

Sunday:  I will monitor Sunday’s thunderstorm risk.  A few strong storms are possible.

Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.

.

🌪️ Current tornado risk:  ISOLATED.  An isolated tornado risk may develop late tonight.  Mainly over northern portions of southeast Missouri, northern portions of southern Illinois, and perhaps northwest Kentucky.  There remain significant questions about how far south the storms will survive. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App and www.weathercall.com

Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: LOW.

Want a phone call if your home is in a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning?

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.

Seven-day outlook graphic.

This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.

.

We are waking up to a cooler and less muggy air mass.

Here were the 5 AM temperatures and dew points.  Dew points control how muggy it feels.

.

Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast

General rainfall total maps for today through Monday morning.

The WPC/NOAA went pretty high on these totals.  I will monitor trends.

* As is typical for late spring, totals will vary greatly.  Thunderstorms can double your rainfall totals.  Keep that in mind.

Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways to receive severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon, it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.

.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.

Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF