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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
June 4th through June 10th
Current risk: NO.
Current confidence level: High.
Comments: Tornadoes are not anticipated.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A chance of lightning Friday night into at least Monday night. I will monitor next Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. NOT AT THIS TIME. Late spring and summer thunderstorms can always produce isolated downburst winds as they collapse.
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Slow-moving storms could produce heavy rain in localized areas. The peak of that would likely be Monday and Tuesday.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. Some data shows upper 80s to around 90 on Saturday and next Wednesday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
School is out for the summer.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
See the rainfall probability graphics below.
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Forecast discussion
- Nice weather today through Friday night. Temperatures and humidity will slowly rise with each passing day.
- Dry weather today into at least Friday night.
- Saturday is trending dry. Perhaps a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Those chances will increase on Saturday night and Sunday.
- The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases to higher numbers on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
- It will become increasingly humid over the weekend into early next week.
- Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms does not mean that it won’t storm. It means that many locations will remain dry. A few spots will receive precipitation.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
No weather concerns. Calm weather today and tomorrow. Nice humidity levels.
Warm.
All in all, nice for early June. Enjoy the day.
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Live Radars and Lightning Data
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Here are the early morning conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
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Dew points
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Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside. Humid.
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Let me show you the forecasted dew points. It is about to get humid again.
Here are today’s dew points. Nice for early June.
Double-click to enlarge
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Now, look at Saturday’s dew points. Muggier air returns. Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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Sunday through Tuesday dew points. Low to mid 70s. Air you wear, as Jim Rasor used to say.
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Seven-Day Rainfall Totals
Rainfall total maps for Friday through next Wednesday night.
Locally higher totals are always possible in slow-moving thunderstorms. We saw that earlier this week with a large range of rain totals. Less than 0.50″ to over 5.00″.
These graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.
* Note: Slow-moving storms can also produce locally higher amounts.
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Not too bad over the next couple of days. Nice weather for June.
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Midwest will keep the weather dry and comfortable today and Friday. Temperatures will stay close to normal for early June:
That means highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Looking ahead to the weekend.
The dry weather pattern will begin to break down this weekend as a weather system develops over the Plains and a cold front approaches the region.
The latest forecast suggests the front will arrive a little later than previously expected, so Saturday now looks mostly dry and warm, with highs reaching the middle to upper 80s. Perhaps a 10% chance of showers during the pm hours.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase beginning Sunday:
See the rain probability graphics below for each 12-hour time period.
- Sunday: 25-50% chance of showers and storms
- Monday: 50-75% chance (highest chance of the period)
- Tuesday and Wednesday: 25-50% chance
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible from Sunday through at least Wednesday.
Here is the lightning data from the EC model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
As you can see, several rounds of thunderstorms are likely this weekend into next week.
Right now, the threat of severe weather appears low. Perhaps a few storms with downburst winds. Strong winds.
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What is a downburst (microburst)?
These tend to be small in coverage. From a block to a few blocks wide and long.
Expected rainfall totals:
These are going to range quite a bit. Slow-moving storms can easily double totals. If you have lived around here, then you will know that. Even within a single county, you can have a wide range.
- Southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, and western Kentucky: 0.80 to 1.50 inches
- Evansville Tri-State area, southeast Illinois, and the Kentucky Pennyrile: 0.40 to 1.00 inches
Some locations could receive higher amounts if storms repeatedly move over the same areas. As mentioned above.
Humidity/dew points will increase into the weekend.
Dew point levels will begin to increase on Saturday as moisture moves northward from the Gulf of Mexico.
- Saturday and Sunday: Noticeably more humid, with muggy conditions returning.
- Monday and Tuesday: Very humid and sticky, with dew points climbing well into the 70s. Summer-type dew points.
In short, enjoy the comfortable weather through Friday, as warmer, more humid conditions and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms arrive late this weekend and continue into next week.
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Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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