Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 13th through May 19th

Current risk:  Not at this time.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments:  Tornadoes are not in the forecast.   I will monitor next week.

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

See the rainfall probability graphic below.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

No weather concerns today or tonight.  Enjoy.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Rainfall total maps through next Wednesday morning.  Slow-moving thunderstorms can enhance totals.

The bulk of this will fall early next week.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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Key Points

• Low humidity and breezy northwest winds today could increase the risk of fires this afternoon.
• Temperatures will stay close to normal for a few days, but a big warm-up starts Friday.
  Well above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week.
• There will be off-and-on chances (20–50%) for showers and thunderstorms:
  • Late Thursday night into Friday morning
  • Late Friday night into Saturday
    The best chances will be in northern and eastern areas.
• A cold front early next week will bring higher chances (40–75%) of showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

Discussion

Avoid burning fields and brush today.  We have a risk of wildfires.

Very dry air will move into the region today behind a weak cold front. Afternoon humidity will drop to around 20–25% in southeast Missouri and 25–35% east of the Mississippi River. With northwest winds of 10–15 mph and gusts near 20 mph, along with ongoing dry conditions, the risk of fires will be elevated today.

We will have a few clouds this morning.  Clearing through the day.

High pressure will bring dry weather and plenty of sunshine through Thursday. Temperatures will be near normal during the day, with cooler-than-normal nights through Thursday night.

By Friday, south winds will increase, bringing much warmer temperatures. This warming trend will continue through the weekend into Monday.

Humidity will also increase. Dew points will rise into the lower to middle 60s over the weekend, then into the middle to upper 60s by Monday and Tuesday.

A weak weather disturbance may bring showers and storms late Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly across the northern two-thirds of the region. Rain chances during this time will be around 20–50%.  See the rain probability graphics below.

Another disturbance could bring 30–50% chances of showers and storms late Friday night into Saturday, mainly across areas north of southeast Missouri.  Again, see the rain probability graphics below.

A few isolated showers or storms may linger Saturday night across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, but rain chances will move north of the area afterward.

Sunday and Sunday night should be mostly dry, if not completely dry.  A tiny chance of an isolated thunderstorm.

By late Monday, a low-pressure system over Minnesota and a cold front stretching southward will move closer to the region.

The morning should remain mostly dry, but there is a 20–40% chance of showers and storms developing Monday afternoon and evening across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana.  A bit lower chance over Kentucky and Tennessee.

Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday, reaching:

• 60–75% in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri
• 40–60% in southwest Indiana and west Kentucky

The exact timing may still change, but the first half of next week looks more active with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms.

Let’s look at the rain probability maps.   What is the % chance of rain?

There are many days with low rain chances.   I will be monitoring trends to see if one or two of those days have a higher chance.

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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