Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 12th through May 18th

Current risk:  None

Current confidence level: High.

Comments:  Tornadoes are not in the forecast.  

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

See the rainfall probability graphic below.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

No weather concerns today.  A couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight.  Mainly over the northern portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.  Don’t expect much.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Rainfall total maps through next Monday.  Not much.   Thunderstorms can always enhance totals in a few locations.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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Key Points To The Forecast

• Temperatures will stay close to normal through Thursday night.
• A big warm-up begins Friday, with above normal temperatures through the weekend and into Monday.
• Southwest Indiana and parts of southern Illinois north of Interstate 64 may see a chance (15–30%) of a few showers or a thunderstorm late this evening and into the overnight. Most places will stay dry, and any rain will be very light and spotty.
• Better chances for showers and storms (20–50%) arrive Friday into Friday evening, especially in northern areas. After that, very small chances (15–20%) will continue through the weekend.
• A more active weather pattern with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances (30–60%) is expected Sunday night and especially early next week.  Right now, the risk of severe weather appears low, but as always, I will be monitoring it.

Forecast Overview

Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms does not mean that it won’t storm.  It means that many locations will remain dry.  A few spots will receive precipitation.

The weather will stay mostly quiet and dry through Thursday night.

The only exception is tonight, when a weak cold front moves through the region.

This will bring a few spotty showers or an isolated thunderstorm to southwest Indiana and parts of southern Illinois north of Interstate 64. Moisture will be limited, so most places will likely stay dry or see only a brief sprinkle.  See the rainfall probability graphics below.

By Friday, winds will turn southerly, bringing warmer temperatures and increasing humidity through the weekend and into early next week.  It will begin to feel more like late spring or early summer.

A weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night, with higher chances across northern areas.

Rainfall will generally be light, around one-tenth of an inch or less, although a thunderstorm could produce slightly higher amounts in a few spots.

Over the weekend, a weak ridge of high pressure will build in, which should limit rain. However, isolated chances (15–20%) of showers or storms will still be possible because of increasing moisture.

By late in the weekend, the ridge will move east, and a cold front will approach from the west.

Forecast models still disagree on the exact timing, but humidity will increase with dew points reaching the upper 60s to around 70 by Monday. A bit muggier.

This will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Rain chances will begin Sunday night into Monday morning (20–40%), increasing to 40–60% by Monday afternoon. The timing may still change, but early next week looks more active with more storms possible.  See the rain graphics below.

Temperatures will stay near normal through Thursday night.

Weekend warmup!

• Friday: highs in the 80s
• Weekend: highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

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Let’s look at the rain probability maps.   What is the % chance of rain?

There are many days with low rain chances.   I will be monitoring trends to see if one or two of those days have a higher chance.

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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